vault
Mr. Fink agrees with Mr. Dimon that the environment right now reminds him of the 1970s. “The 70s was all about bad policy. Today it’s about bad policy again.” Inflation surrounds us everywhere, and it’s going to stay, so, “you…
Read MoreMr. Bianco says that if we are going to un-invert the yield curve, rates need to go higher than the 6 month T-Bill rates of 5.5%. Again, jobs are strong, we’ll have a 4% GDP print, and the last ten…
Read MoreDr. Summers agrees with Chairman Powell. However, the Fed will have to engage with the markets about the enormity of Treasury debt. The real neutral rate should be in excess of 1.5%. Also, the term premium rise is putting breaks…
Read MoreHe reiterates the strong resiliency of the economy, especially, from the strong job market, termed out corporate debt and home mortgages.
Read MoreMr. Grant declares that the yield spike on bonds is from the last 10 years of interest rate suppression – the lowest rates in 4000 years – whereby $16T of bonds had a negative yield. This beachball suppressed under water,…
Read MoreUnless we see the economy in complete freefall, the Fed will hold. The Fed has only raised 25 basis points since May, but the long end of the curve has reacted substantially. 30% of outstanding Treasuries are maturing in a…
Read MoreMr. Cooperman doesn’t think there is any reason for interest rates to go down. He still thinks many are playing the stock market too aggressively. He thinks the play is individual stocks instead of the S&P.
Read MoreDiscoveries in AI, robotics and health will be the next opportunities. This is also allowing us to “recalibrate” away from China. If people are living longer, locking in 7-9% returns for 10 and 20 years will provide confidence and dignity…
Read MoreDr. Rogoff understands that he is in the academic minority with his viewpoint and disagrees with the latest demographic and productivity papers indicating this rates regime is transitory. He still thinks that the fundamentals point to higher rates over the…
Read MoreInterest on the debt will exceed defense spending in two years. In about 4-5 years, 20% of taxes will pay interest on the debt. This will soon be a culminating “grinding reality,” and we will have to deal with this.…
Read More