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As time goes on, more Convoys will happen at the margin, says Jim Grant.  It’s from emerging contractionary credit markets.

October 20, 2023 | Pucklore | Vault

Mr. Grant declares that the yield spike on bonds is from the last 10 years of interest rate suppression – the lowest rates in 4000 years – whereby $16T of bonds had a negative yield.  This beachball suppressed under water, will jump up when released.

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← JPM’s Oksana Aronov says, “The 10-year is still… very much priced for a 2% inflation world.”  Jay Powell wants to “demolish” the unhealthy relationship between asset prices and Fed policy, so don’t wait for the Fed punch bowl to come back.  Also, the default cycle is underway.
Most important line of Fed Chairman Powell’s speech, “It may be just that rates haven’t been high enough for long enough.” →

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