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Larry Fink unequivocally reiterates at the FII, “We are going to see higher interest rates, David….  We will not see a hard or soft landing in 2024.”

By Pucklore | October 25, 2023

Mr. Fink agrees with Mr. Dimon that the environment right now reminds him of the 1970s.  “The 70s was all about bad policy.  Today it’s about bad policy again.”  Inflation surrounds us everywhere, and it’s going to stay, so, “you…

One of the most accurate higher-for-longer market forecasters, Jim Bianco, says, “Ultimately, I still think we’re going to go higher (on rates) and see a capitulation.”

By Pucklore | October 24, 2023

Mr. Bianco says that if we are going to un-invert the yield curve, rates need to go higher than the 6 month T-Bill rates of 5.5%.  Again, jobs are strong, we’ll have a 4% GDP print, and the last ten…

Larry Summers thinks the Fed will keep rates unchanged at the November meeting, but the December meeting is uncertain.  He also addresses the magnitude of losses the Fed has on its Treasury purchases.

By Pucklore | October 21, 2023

Dr. Summers agrees with Chairman Powell.  However, the Fed will have to engage with the markets about the enormity of Treasury debt.  The real neutral rate should be in excess of 1.5%.  Also, the term premium rise is putting breaks…

Most important line of Fed Chairman Powell’s speech, “It may be just that rates haven’t been high enough for long enough.”

By Pucklore | October 20, 2023

He reiterates the strong resiliency of the economy, especially, from the strong job market, termed out corporate debt and home mortgages.

As time goes on, more Convoys will happen at the margin, says Jim Grant.  It’s from emerging contractionary credit markets.

By Pucklore | October 20, 2023

Mr. Grant declares that the yield spike on bonds is from the last 10 years of interest rate suppression – the lowest rates in 4000 years – whereby $16T of bonds had a negative yield.  This beachball suppressed under water,…

JPM’s Oksana Aronov says, “The 10-year is still… very much priced for a 2% inflation world.”  Jay Powell wants to “demolish” the unhealthy relationship between asset prices and Fed policy, so don’t wait for the Fed punch bowl to come back.  Also, the default cycle is underway.

By Pucklore | October 18, 2023

Unless we see the economy in complete freefall, the Fed will hold.  The Fed has only raised 25 basis points since May, but the long end of the curve has reacted substantially.  30% of outstanding Treasuries are maturing in a…

Bottom line for Leon Cooperman is 20 times earnings for the S&P 500 is too high in this environment.  He also thinks 5-5.5% on the 10-year is reasonable.

By Pucklore | October 16, 2023

Mr. Cooperman doesn’t think there is any reason for interest rates to go down.  He still thinks many are playing the stock market too aggressively.  He thinks the play is individual stocks instead of the S&P.

Larry Fink still thinks bond yields will go above 5% and that inflation will be sticky.  He thinks, eventually, corporate and pension funds will sell equities and buy long bonds to more easily match liabilities.

By Pucklore | October 14, 2023

Discoveries in AI, robotics and health will be the next opportunities.  This is also allowing us to “recalibrate” away from China.  If people are living longer, locking in 7-9% returns for 10 and 20 years will provide confidence and dignity…

Ken Rogoff – “Oh, I’m definitely in the school that they (real rates) are going to stay high for as far as the eye can see.” 

By Pucklore | October 12, 2023

Dr. Rogoff understands that he is in the academic minority with his viewpoint and disagrees with the latest demographic and productivity papers indicating this rates regime is transitory.  He still thinks that the fundamentals point to higher rates over the…

Paul Tudor Jones says , “With 122% of debt to GDP… you get in this vicious circle where higher interest rates cause higher funding costs cause higher debt issuance which cause further bond liquidation which cause higher rates.”

By Pucklore | October 10, 2023

Interest on the debt will exceed defense spending in two years.  In about 4-5 years, 20% of taxes will pay interest on the debt.  This will soon be a culminating “grinding reality,” and we will have to deal with this.…

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