Recent Posts

Categories

Co-founder of Palantir Joe Lonsdale says AI will create productivity gains – especially, and more immediately in healthcare billing. 

By Pucklore | January 23, 2024

Andrew Ross Sorkin asks if AI will just be just a commoditized feature of everything or if it will actually create new value in products.  Joe Lonsdale says it will create productivity. 

World Bank Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose says, “We are expecting interest rates, especially, real interest rates to be elevated for the foreseeable future.”

By Pucklore | January 10, 2024

This is because global inflation will be around 3% – still too high for many central banks.  Dr. Kose also expects more countries in “frontier markets” to default on their debt, as global growth from 2020-2024 is expected to be…

“Plenty of more stimulus back into the economy at a time when they are desperately trying to get prices down,” says Scott Phillips…about Australia.  This could be the “equivalent of 2–3 rate cuts.”

By Pucklore | January 9, 2024

So interest rate relief in 2024 will be unlikely in Australia.  The United States also has their own stimulus coming through in 2024 of which the GDP growth effects could be more than anticipated, i.e., inflationary.  Likewise, would the Fed…

2024 Predictions: DeSantis Wins, Fed Funds up 50 BPS, 10-Year at 4.75%, S&P up 7%

By Pucklore | January 2, 2024

The stock market will once again climb the wall of worry, and the S&P 500 will finish up 7%.  There will be no recession, because the job market is so strong, and AI excitement counters any fear.  Inflation comes down…

“They are in very good shape,” says Brian Moynihan on the U.S. consumer.  “They have money in their accounts; they’re employed, and their wages are growing.”

By Pucklore | December 21, 2023

BofA runs the largest consumer banking business in the country.  Between November of 2022 and November of 2023, customer spending was up about 4.5% with December projected to be about the same.  With unemployment at about 3.9%, the consumer is…

A few years of higher for longer could be good for the economies’ soul. If the Fed lowers rates, it’ll recharge the buying frenzy and real estate inflation it should want to cool.

By Pucklore | December 18, 2023

In the Midwest, rents are up about 40% just within the last few years.  The job market is strong.  Yes, stimulus money has largely been spent, but jobs are plentiful, so tenants can affordably pay the higher rent.  There aren’t…

The FOMC statement basically says economic activity is good but not great.  They are in wait-and-see mode.  So if the economy is resilient, why lower rates?

By Pucklore | December 15, 2023

Since the early 1980s, rates have been on a downward path.  However, debt growth has accelerated as well, and in 2020, a new trend upwards may have emerged. Could the fiscal stimulus and $4 trillion debt issuance in 2020 have…

Dan Wang of Hang Seng Bank says that, in China, deflation will intensify in 2024 and residential home prices will continue to go down.

By Pucklore | December 12, 2023

Income will slow down and people will postpone consumption, as they expect declining prices.  For unskilled labor, it’s relatively easy to get a job.    However, higher skilled jobs are more difficult to find, as these job openings have decreased over…

1970s and 80s apartment buildings in 2021 and early 2022, not ideally located, were selling at 3.5% cap rates, says Lee Everett of Waterton. He says “dark days” lie ahead in multifamily.

By Pucklore | December 7, 2023

In Q4 of 2021, over 150B of capital transacted in apartments.  In all of 2021, almost $400B sold.  The next biggest record was 2019 which was about $190B. Mr. Everett says 700,000 renter households formed in 2021 which was 2.5X…

Recession, no recession, inflation, deflation – interest rates should be the same or higher throughout 2024, because Federal Debt to GDP is 120% now, and Econ 101 graphs should actually be applicable now.  The inexorable rise of interest rates. 

By Pucklore | December 5, 2023

TRENDING