Recent Posts
And yes, flips are getting much harder in this market. In my underwriting, I’ll try to double the value, and get a 13 cap. But sentimentally, beneath the old lady diapers, mice turds and filth, this particularly splendid home in…
The general trajectory has continued to be this: a solid economy, sticky inflation from services, massive deficits and government spending, AI enthusiasm. The job cuts from AI shouldn’t happen for years. And my Econ 101 text book said technology improvements…
I remember the instructor in Econ 101 saying that the Fed can “jawbone” desired outcomes. So does jawboning expected rate cuts serve in itself as a sort of rate cut? Perhaps the Fed’s goal is to maintain higher rates and…
HVAC and plumbers are up 50% and 30% respectively on their trades just these last couple months. And this is after their prior year increases of about 25%. Not all users know about these latest contractor and insurance hikes yet. …
So Strauss and Howe wrote (in the late 80s/early 90s) that we should regard the years of 1924, 1855, 1766 and 1673 as a blue print for our current situation. One would think the behavior and preparation that was successful…
He did reference casinos being run out of homes. And it is true that human nature probably hasn’t changed much over the last 100+ years and panic could actually spread even more instantaneously with a Twittersphere turbocharger. But he did…
Dr. Summers says housing is 30% of the core CPI calculation. There may be some local housing bubble rents popping, but it seems the majority of housing owners and service providers are still raising rates…substantially. Re-rents on mediocre three bedroom…
So China posted another month of negative consumer inflation at -.8%. Foreign investors have been taking money out of China. The construction job market is still relatively strong in the U.S. Those that work in the physical world emblematic of…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/global-cross-border-money-flows-are-picking-up-from-a-record-low The current unemployment rate is 3.7%. GDP growth was 4.9% in Q3 2023 and 3.3% in Q4 2023. Massive government spending and deficits to stimulate the economy in 2024. I recall my Econ 101 text book saying to lower…
Mr. Fisher thinks the economy is doing well, and the Fed won’t be politically accommodative to the President during the election year. Firms aren’t laying off workers, but they’re not hiring much, and workers aren’t aggressively quitting either. Furthermore, companies…