https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/global-cross-border-money-flows-are-picking-up-from-a-record-low The current unemployment rate is 3.7%. GDP growth was 4.9% in Q3 2023 and 3.3% in Q4 2023. Massive government spending and deficits to stimulate the economy in 2024. I recall my Econ 101 text book saying to lower…

“The recession is receding,” says Former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher. So why would you lower rates? “Rates are normal now. This is where things are supposed to be.”

By Pucklore | January 26, 2024 | Comments Off on “The recession is receding,” says Former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher. So why would you lower rates? “Rates are normal now. This is where things are supposed to be.”

Mr. Fisher thinks the economy is doing well, and the Fed won’t be politically accommodative to the President during the election year. Firms aren’t laying off workers, but they’re not hiring much, and workers aren’t aggressively quitting either. Furthermore, companies…

2024 Predictions: DeSantis Wins, Fed Funds up 50 BPS, 10-Year at 4.75%, S&P up 7%

By Pucklore | January 2, 2024 | Comments Off on 2024 Predictions: DeSantis Wins, Fed Funds up 50 BPS, 10-Year at 4.75%, S&P up 7%

The stock market will once again climb the wall of worry, and the S&P 500 will finish up 7%. There will be no recession, because the job market is so strong, and AI excitement counters any fear. Inflation comes down…

The FOMC statement basically says economic activity is good but not great. They are in wait-and-see mode. So if the economy is resilient, why lower rates?

By Pucklore | December 15, 2023 | Comments Off on The FOMC statement basically says economic activity is good but not great. They are in wait-and-see mode. So if the economy is resilient, why lower rates?

Since the early 1980s, rates have been on a downward path. However, debt growth has accelerated as well, and in 2020, a new trend upwards may have emerged. Could the fiscal stimulus and $4 trillion debt issuance in 2020 have…

1970s and 80s apartment buildings in 2021 and early 2022, not ideally located, were selling at 3.5% cap rates, says Lee Everett of Waterton. He says “dark days” lie ahead in multifamily.

By Pucklore | December 7, 2023 | Comments Off on 1970s and 80s apartment buildings in 2021 and early 2022, not ideally located, were selling at 3.5% cap rates, says Lee Everett of Waterton. He says “dark days” lie ahead in multifamily.

In Q4 of 2021, over 150B of capital transacted in apartments. In all of 2021, almost $400B sold. The next biggest record was 2019 which was about $190B. Mr. Everett says 700,000 renter households formed in 2021 which was 2.5X…

Recession, no recession, inflation, deflation – interest rates should be the same or higher throughout 2024, because Federal Debt to GDP is 120% now, and Econ 101 graphs should actually be applicable now. The inexorable rise of interest rates.

By Pucklore | December 5, 2023 | Comments Off on Recession, no recession, inflation, deflation – interest rates should be the same or higher throughout 2024, because Federal Debt to GDP is 120% now, and Econ 101 graphs should actually be applicable now. The inexorable rise of interest rates.

Jim Grant and Jim Bianco discuss the bear market in bonds which began in 2020. Mr. Bianco’s conviction is a 5.5% 10-Year in 2024. Could a Lis Truss moment hit the U.S. whereby bond markets enforce fiscal discipline that government themselves will not?

By Pucklore | December 5, 2023 | Comments Off on Jim Grant and Jim Bianco discuss the bear market in bonds which began in 2020. Mr. Bianco’s conviction is a 5.5% 10-Year in 2024. Could a Lis Truss moment hit the U.S. whereby bond markets enforce fiscal discipline that government themselves will not?

Mr. Bianco reiterates the prior 13 years of interest rates were anomalous to which Mr. Grant adds that 5-6% is about the nation’s long run average. Interest rates still haven’t gone high enough to “murder” anything – they will, just…

“Interest rates have at least tended over the past 150 years to rise and fall in generational length intervals…. There is nothing scientific about this…. If the historical form holds, the greatest bond bull market might be succeeded by a bear market of some duration and power,” says Jim Grant.

By Pucklore | November 27, 2023 | Comments Off on “Interest rates have at least tended over the past 150 years to rise and fall in generational length intervals…. There is nothing scientific about this…. If the historical form holds, the greatest bond bull market might be succeeded by a bear market of some duration and power,” says Jim Grant.

Mr. Grant isn’t seeing “higher for longer.” He is seeing “higher for much, much, much, much longer.” He is also concerned about the “antique phrase” Public Credit of which Alexander Hamilton wrote about in 1791. The U.S. is potentially issuing…

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin says, “I see inflation being stubborn.” More than half of the respondents at his chamber of commerce small business meeting say they will be raising prices to higher than pre-Covid levels.

By Pucklore | November 26, 2023 | Comments Off on Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin says, “I see inflation being stubborn.” More than half of the respondents at his chamber of commerce small business meeting say they will be raising prices to higher than pre-Covid levels.

Mr. Barkin, “doesn’t think this is a big time for forward guidance on rates,” seemingly implying that rate cut projections are misguided. He thinks rates will run higher for longer and says there is a lot of wage pressure in…