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So after transitory inflation, a massive Fed pivot and the start of 7 rate cuts with the 10-year down to 3.5%… oh, wait.   What just happened?

By Pucklore | April 11, 2024 | Comments Off on So after transitory inflation, a massive Fed pivot and the start of 7 rate cuts with the 10-year down to 3.5%… oh, wait.   What just happened?

The general trajectory has continued to be this: a solid economy, sticky inflation from services, massive deficits and government spending, AI enthusiasm.  The job cuts from AI shouldn’t happen for years.  And my Econ 101 text book said technology improvements…

I think someone forgot to tell my local contractors and insurance that All items CPI is cooling at 3.2%, and the Fed will be cutting rates in June, so they can stop raising their rates significantly.  Insurance rates (especially on Illinois properties) are bumping up about 45% on each renewal. 

By Pucklore | March 13, 2024 | Comments Off on I think someone forgot to tell my local contractors and insurance that All items CPI is cooling at 3.2%, and the Fed will be cutting rates in June, so they can stop raising their rates significantly.  Insurance rates (especially on Illinois properties) are bumping up about 45% on each renewal. 

HVAC and plumbers are up 50% and 30% respectively on their trades just these last couple months.  And this is after their prior year increases of about 25%.  Not all users know about these latest contractor and insurance hikes yet. …

A boring dump into one’s account of T-Bill stimulus every few weeks seems like a decent shelter in a tumultuous world. 

By Pucklore | March 6, 2024 | Comments Off on A boring dump into one’s account of T-Bill stimulus every few weeks seems like a decent shelter in a tumultuous world. 

So Strauss and Howe wrote (in the late 80s/early 90s) that we should regard the years of 1924, 1855, 1766 and 1673 as a blue print for our current situation.  One would think the behavior and preparation that was successful…

Is Grandpa Warren implying that he thinks he may have to use his “Not-So-Secret Weapon” soon? 

By Pucklore | February 27, 2024 | Comments Off on Is Grandpa Warren implying that he thinks he may have to use his “Not-So-Secret Weapon” soon? 

He did reference casinos being run out of homes.  And it is true that human nature probably hasn’t changed much over the last 100+ years and panic could actually spread even more instantaneously with a Twittersphere turbocharger.  But he did…

I’m still seeing this: “What the heck did he just charge me? I need to raise my own rates again.”  Inflationary impulses still seem primed to me.

By Pucklore | February 17, 2024 | Comments Off on I’m still seeing this: “What the heck did he just charge me? I need to raise my own rates again.”  Inflationary impulses still seem primed to me.

Dr. Summers says housing is 30% of the core CPI calculation.  There may be some local housing bubble rents popping, but it seems the majority of housing owners and service providers are still raising rates…substantially.  Re-rents on mediocre three bedroom…

“Investors prepare for interest rate cuts globally.”  May I take the over on this?

By Pucklore | January 31, 2024 | Comments Off on “Investors prepare for interest rate cuts globally.”  May I take the over on this?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/global-cross-border-money-flows-are-picking-up-from-a-record-low The current unemployment rate is 3.7%.  GDP growth was 4.9% in Q3 2023 and 3.3% in Q4 2023.  Massive government spending and deficits to stimulate the economy in 2024.  I recall my Econ 101 text book saying to lower…

“The recession is receding,” says Former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher. So why would you lower rates?  “Rates are normal now.  This is where things are supposed to be.”

By Pucklore | January 26, 2024 | Comments Off on “The recession is receding,” says Former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher. So why would you lower rates?  “Rates are normal now.  This is where things are supposed to be.”

Mr. Fisher thinks the economy is doing well, and the Fed won’t be politically accommodative to the President during the election year.  Firms aren’t laying off workers, but they’re not hiring much, and workers aren’t aggressively quitting either.  Furthermore, companies…

2024 Predictions: DeSantis Wins, Fed Funds up 50 BPS, 10-Year at 4.75%, S&P up 7%

By Pucklore | January 2, 2024 | Comments Off on 2024 Predictions: DeSantis Wins, Fed Funds up 50 BPS, 10-Year at 4.75%, S&P up 7%

The stock market will once again climb the wall of worry, and the S&P 500 will finish up 7%.  There will be no recession, because the job market is so strong, and AI excitement counters any fear.  Inflation comes down…

The FOMC statement basically says economic activity is good but not great.  They are in wait-and-see mode.  So if the economy is resilient, why lower rates?

By Pucklore | December 15, 2023 | Comments Off on The FOMC statement basically says economic activity is good but not great.  They are in wait-and-see mode.  So if the economy is resilient, why lower rates?

Since the early 1980s, rates have been on a downward path.  However, debt growth has accelerated as well, and in 2020, a new trend upwards may have emerged. Could the fiscal stimulus and $4 trillion debt issuance in 2020 have…

1970s and 80s apartment buildings in 2021 and early 2022, not ideally located, were selling at 3.5% cap rates, says Lee Everett of Waterton. He says “dark days” lie ahead in multifamily.

By Pucklore | December 7, 2023 | Comments Off on 1970s and 80s apartment buildings in 2021 and early 2022, not ideally located, were selling at 3.5% cap rates, says Lee Everett of Waterton. He says “dark days” lie ahead in multifamily.

In Q4 of 2021, over 150B of capital transacted in apartments.  In all of 2021, almost $400B sold.  The next biggest record was 2019 which was about $190B. Mr. Everett says 700,000 renter households formed in 2021 which was 2.5X…

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