Pucklore - Top Business Leaders to Follow

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin says, “I see inflation being stubborn.” More than half of the respondents at his chamber of commerce small business meeting say they will be raising prices to higher than pre-Covid levels.

November 26, 2023

Mr. Barkin, “doesn’t think this is a big time for forward guidance on rates,” seemingly implying that rate cut projections are misguided. He thinks rates will run higher for longer and says there is a lot of wage pressure in…

Dr. El-Erian says, “We should not see another hike.” However, rate cut forecasts for next year are too aggressive.

November 25, 2023

In general, we are seeing inflation in the service sector and deflation in the goods sector. Dr. El-Erian said in September that he thought the Fed would keep the door open to another rate hike, but now, he thinks that…

The cycle of Fed interest rate hikes.

November 21, 2023

A conservative 10% cap rate after targeted CapEx of 10% of the purchase price with an equity bump of around 15% on a theoretical resale. Not the glory days of yore….

November 19, 2023

But this is the new reality of Midwest home buying, and this, after a long, difficult search. It’s better than a T-Bill. If business loans are 7.25%, the margins are too thin, so just use cash. If the 10-Year went…

“But, ultimately, I think we’re going to make new higher yields in the first half of 2024,” says Jim Bianco, with the fair value for the 10-Year Treasury between 5.5%-6%.

November 18, 2023

Consumers aren’t yet concerned about having to re-trench financially. The job market still seems plentiful. With a 10-Year at 5.5%, that would bring mortgage rates to about 8.5%-9%, so that might start different discussions about a larger retrenchment in the…

President Xi had a meeting with American CEOs who all gave him a standing ovation, whereas President Biden met with all the different world leaders of the entire region. That says all you need to know about the Summit, explains Rahm Emmanuel.

November 17, 2023

So nobody is under any illusion anymore. China is desperate for American Investment. They have made terrible decisions economically and politically. “The coin of the realm for the United States – we have allies; we have friends, and they want…

Perhaps the unemployment rate went up, because workers came back. Claudia Sahm’s rule of .5% unemployment rises always followed by recessions is in play. Is this time different? (3.4% -> 3.9% already.)

November 14, 2023

Perhaps the unemployment increase is supply related (workers coming back) and not the classic demand loop. Many rules have been broken since the pandemic, so perhaps the “Sahm Rule” is next to fall. Last year had two quarters of a…

Ron Baron seems to agree with Ray Kurzweil that economic growth will accelerate over the longer term, as businesses become less capital intensive. Mr. Baron is an optimist and has never owned a bond.

November 11, 2023

Mr. Baron reflects on the progress of the U.S. economy since the 1960s when it seemed the world was falling apart. In the earlier video, he is excited about Tesla’s imminent rollout of $25,000 cars within a couple of years.

Over 70% of all U.S. residential housing stock is owned by those 50 years and older says Meredith Whitney. And 86% of the “avocado toast” generation (18-38) does not own a home.

November 10, 2023

Over $21T of home equity has been created over the last decade. Most of this gain has accrued to older generations who own their homes free and clear. So a 40% drawdown in home prices to pre-pandemic levels over many…

Ken Griffin says deglobalization will lead to higher inflation, potentially, for decades. “We didn’t plan for an era with higher nominal and higher real rates when we went on the spending spree that created a $33T deficit…. There is no IMF for America.”

November 10, 2023

Mr. Griffin says that instead of us saving for a rainy day, “We’re spending, at the government level, like a drunken sailor.” He thinks the rise in the 10-year is due to the strong economy coupled with large, unsustainable deficits. …

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Dr. El-Erian says, “We should not see another hike.” However, rate cut forecasts for next year are too aggressive.

The cycle of Fed interest rate hikes.

President Xi had a meeting with American CEOs who all gave him a standing ovation, whereas President Biden met with all the different world leaders of the entire region. That says all you need to know about the Summit, explains Rahm Emmanuel.

Perhaps the unemployment rate went up, because workers came back. Claudia Sahm’s rule of .5% unemployment rises always followed by recessions is in play. Is this time different? (3.4% -> 3.9% already.)

Ron Baron seems to agree with Ray Kurzweil that economic growth will accelerate over the longer term, as businesses become less capital intensive. Mr. Baron is an optimist and has never owned a bond.

Ken Griffin says deglobalization will lead to higher inflation, potentially, for decades. “We didn’t plan for an era with higher nominal and higher real rates when we went on the spending spree that created a $33T deficit…. There is no IMF for America.”

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