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A healthy long-term economy needs some thinning of the forest for strong trees to grow. If we are doomed to recession this year, where are all the layoffs? Are business owners that run good businesses supposed to start calling in…
Read MoreThe yield curve was basically infallible as well, so declaring we are headed imminently towards recession could be wrong. While a bit lonely today, I shall stay in the higher for longer camp. For example, on July 5, 2022, when…
Read MoreSo the stock market is just off its historic high around 5,500 on the S&P. Unemployment at 4.3% is hovering well below its long term average of 5.7%. GDP growth is doing well at 2.8% YoY. We’ve had a 15…
Read MoreEurope runs at a slower speed than the U.S. – at least vs the East Coast and Midwest where I have lived. They also appreciate some of the basic routines of life more – like eating. No seriously, let’s just…
Read MoreWhy are we at the Neutral Rate? Because some of the profligate easy money home buyers that bought late-and-large on debt are selling now. Many of these homes have been completely gutted, too but are now for sale indicating their…
Read MoreBut what about this scenario? The runaway national debt forces higher rates. Will buyers retreat and sellers sell to make a market then? In my local markets, I’m seeing sellers already selling and buyers cherry picking the right properties.
Read MoreLower rates, by definition, raise asset prices. Also, in lower rate environments, non-recourse type private equity firms and individuals with more unlimited capital means and relationships are able to acquire assets more easily than the normal home buyers. And many…
Read MoreIn a couple years, the United States should experience a complex and rapidly changing economic landscape. Looming on the horizon are potent threats that could converge to trigger an economic collapse by 2027: unsustainable budget deficits and widespread job losses…
Read MoreIf T-Bill revenue is about $300B per year based on $6T outstanding at 5%, and foreigners own 30%, that’s about $200B of income here in the U.S. Berkshire Hathaway alone takes about $9B of that with other major corps like…
Read MoreMy small business tells me that people are just consolidating. Those that work are working harder and maneuvering to make ends meet. And the ones that don’t work are still hunky dory. I’m more of a “Silver Tsunami” subscriber. And…
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