vault

We’ll have the Inauguration, but then when does the 2nd Trump Term Honeymoon end?  I think it’s this year.

January 9, 2025

Eventually, there will be chaos in late 2025.  The blame game will start, and 10 year bonds across developed nations will continue sinking around the world.  It’s really the simple economics equations that work best.  Will $3T of mostly shorter…

Read More

Cap rates in the old glory grounds of the Midwest on nice single family homes are now about 6 1/4% for a regular market deal – at non rip-off rents.  You might get a 10% cap…

December 3, 2024

fly by once in a quarter, but there will be zero to negative equity gain, and you’ll feel uncomfortable buying at the extreme top even though it’s a 10.  If we have a major crisis, is a Midwest 10% cap…

Read More

I’d like to mangle the last word of a quote from John Brown just before he was hanged at the dawn of The Civil War:

November 3, 2024

“I… am now quite certain that the crimes of this guilty land will never be purged away – but with [meanness].” I’m not worried about the election winner. Trump will win. I am worried about a potential mental degradation… of…

Read More

Apparently, we aren’t supposed to analyze early voting. May we analyze shy Trump voter percentages?

October 31, 2024

At this time in 2020 President Biden was polling 6 points ahead in Pennsylvania, 9 points ahead in Michigan and 8 points ahead in Wisconsin. And Ohio was tied. Respectively, at this point in time in 2016, Secretary Clinton was…

Read More

According to the battleground polls, JD Vance’s debate performance solidifies a Trump victory.  This will  give a short-term economic boost through mid-2025.

October 11, 2024

However, I am beginning to see a little pushback towards higher rents.  Tenants are getting somewhat pickier in their demands.  I’m glad I keep them a little lower.  It helps the Tenant a little, and I am okay with that,…

Read More

A Trump victory is inflationary, and a Harris victory is deflationary. 

September 17, 2024

I’ve lived on the border of Illinois and Wisconsin and have seen the effects of each state’s policies on my businesses.  Good luck getting your furnace guy to install a new water heater while he’s there in certain parts of…

Read More

I think the Fed should stay put on rates in September.  Some of the gloom may be attributable to the realization that we have 2.5 months left before the election, i.e., UNCERTAINTY.

August 21, 2024

Once the election is over, and power is peacefully transferred, I think there will be a psychological relief bounce over some sort of CERTAINTY.  Rental demand is still strong in my area.  If Tenants move out, Landlords are indifferent and…

Read More

The S&P 500 is still up over 12% this year, so a 300 pt drop and a spike from 3.4% – 4.3% in the unemployment maketh not a necessity to cut rates.

August 13, 2024

A healthy long-term economy needs some thinning of the forest for strong trees to grow. If we are doomed to recession this year, where are all the layoffs?  Are business owners that run good businesses supposed to start calling in…

Read More

The Sahm rule is based on history and works 100%… until it doesn’t.

August 3, 2024

The yield curve was basically infallible as well, so declaring we are headed imminently towards recession could be wrong. While a bit lonely today, I shall stay in the higher for longer camp. For example, on July 5, 2022, when…

Read More

If the dual mandate is stable prices and unemployment, seems like unemployment at 4.3% isn’t terrible, and the Fed should focus on the inflation rate (3%). 

August 2, 2024

So the stock market is just off its historic high around 5,500 on the S&P.  Unemployment at 4.3% is hovering well below its long term average of 5.7%.  GDP growth is doing well at 2.8% YoY.  We’ve had a 15…

Read More