The most important line of Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech: “The wide range of estimates of these lags suggests that there may be significant further drag in the pipeline.”

It may behoove the younger generations to speak with someone over 65 years old about their history and experience of interest rates. For everything, there is a season, and we may be headed away from constantly falling interest rates for the last 40+ years. If you’re not currently grinding out a non-real estate related business, it may be time to shift from focusing on sowing new seed to storing grain and letting the the ground lie fallow. The risk-free rate of T-Bills through Treasurydirect.gov is now yielding over 5.5%. Here is the text of the speech. Scrolling down to the heading “Uncertainty and Risk Management along the Path Forward” provides a great summarization.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20230825a.htm