Recent Posts
Mr. Cooperman doesn’t think there is any reason for interest rates to go down. He still thinks many are playing the stock market too aggressively. He thinks the play is individual stocks instead of the S&P.
Discoveries in AI, robotics and health will be the next opportunities. This is also allowing us to “recalibrate” away from China. If people are living longer, locking in 7-9% returns for 10 and 20 years will provide confidence and dignity…
Dr. Rogoff understands that he is in the academic minority with his viewpoint and disagrees with the latest demographic and productivity papers indicating this rates regime is transitory. He still thinks that the fundamentals point to higher rates over the…
Interest on the debt will exceed defense spending in two years. In about 4-5 years, 20% of taxes will pay interest on the debt. This will soon be a culminating “grinding reality,” and we will have to deal with this.…
“We’ve got something of an energizer bunny economy…. If anything, it looks like job growth is accelerating…. Interest rates may be less restrictive than they used to be.” Back in 2008, he was more concerned about too much austerity, because…
Mr. Sperling remembers his first mortgage rate of 17% in the early 1980s. Globalization, cheap energy (fracking), low cost of capital and other deflationary forces are no longer. We tripled our national debt in the last 15 years, and we’ve…
So Mr. Bianco says that this is what the stock market is competing with now. He agrees that we are generally in a secular bond bear market. And in the short term, he is looking for an old-fashioned capitulation, as…
He points out that the S&P 500 has returned about 10% per year for the last 100 years – “That’s a good rate of return.” Today, you get high single digit returns on publicly traded debt securities or low double…
Mr. Sternlicht admits that he underestimated the effect of government stimulus, and the infrastructure bill alone is adding 50 bps to GDP. A construction CEO member of his board says 70% of all his projects are public, and he’s never…
“Look, we are in a cold war. They’ve been fighting it since 2001,” says Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital.
Mr. Bass also wonders why we give China all the asymmetries, e.g., we let them broadcast anything in our country, but we can’t in theirs. China’s banking system is 4X more levered than ours, and 40% of the leverage is…