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“We’ve got something of an energizer bunny economy…. If anything, it looks like job growth is accelerating…. Interest rates may be less restrictive than they used to be.” Back in 2008, he was more concerned about too much austerity, because…
Mr. Sperling remembers his first mortgage rate of 17% in the early 1980s. Globalization, cheap energy (fracking), low cost of capital and other deflationary forces are no longer. We tripled our national debt in the last 15 years, and we’ve…
So Mr. Bianco says that this is what the stock market is competing with now. He agrees that we are generally in a secular bond bear market. And in the short term, he is looking for an old-fashioned capitulation, as…
He points out that the S&P 500 has returned about 10% per year for the last 100 years – “That’s a good rate of return.” Today, you get high single digit returns on publicly traded debt securities or low double…
Mr. Sternlicht admits that he underestimated the effect of government stimulus, and the infrastructure bill alone is adding 50 bps to GDP. A construction CEO member of his board says 70% of all his projects are public, and he’s never…
“Look, we are in a cold war. They’ve been fighting it since 2001,” says Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital.
Mr. Bass also wonders why we give China all the asymmetries, e.g., we let them broadcast anything in our country, but we can’t in theirs. China’s banking system is 4X more levered than ours, and 40% of the leverage is…
Mr. Rieder then asks how much risk do you really want to take in term premium when the front rates are so high, and the Fed is indicating they’d like to raise more? This corroborates that narrative of who is…
The founders also discuss the tightening of risk capital to entrepreneurs, so you need to make due with less. Additionally, they think consumers will pull back on their wallets. Jeffrey Sachs also questions who will take on all the new…
China selling, Russia selling, Saudi Arabia selling, and the U.S. economy is still doing well. Again, so who will buy all the new Treasury supply on the longer end? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrDI3QDFh0A&t=1234s
“What is the next shoe to drop?” Mr. Gibson’s response is: “I don’t, simply, because CRE like every asset class adjusts to the cost of capital.” Ms. Abramowicz then asks – after pointing out the Wall Street Journal calling it…