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Mr. O’Leary has a unique vantage into the small business world – of which data is actually current – and thinks America is “downsizing”. Large purchases in young people’s lives will be substituted by smaller things – smaller houses, autos,…
Nor is there a sign of a recession or a dramatic slowdown. There is no indication of significant layoffs. Mr. Harris thinks that the most depressing thing about the economy is the constant recession predictions – when there are none.
Less apparel, fewer toys and less home items are being bought, so there are some areas in the economy where there is a recession. This is a reversal of the prior years in which they were chasing demand. Mr. Cornell…
Mr. Eisman doesn’t think the Fed will lower rates next year (unless there is a bad recession) and would avoid buying the 10-year. He seems to agree with Robert Kaplan that the economy won’t slow down due to the fiscal…
The Fed will more than likely need to raise rates again. 10-year bond yields should rise. The size of the deficits, quantitative tightening, and nations selling will add to the supply. However, he doesn’t think we’ll have a “Volcker Recession”…
Mr. Fisher doesn’t think there is a clearing mechanism for the market when there is so much borrowing. As long as the fiscal authorities are out of control, we will live in a 5% world. “They (the Fed) can work…
Mr. Cooperman still thinks the market is going nowhere for a very long time and reiterates the story of the Pharoah’s dream interpreted as having 7 prosperous years followed by 7 lean years. We’ve pulled forward a lot of fiscal…
If you look at medium and long-term rates, the path of Fed policy, fiscal policy and the geopolitical landscape, it’s not a good environment for equities. We are incentivized right now to invest in fixed income. Becky Quick adds that…
2/3 of non-investment grade credit is floating rate, so they will feel the pinch in real time. However, Mr. Mudrick generally expects defaults to be “protracted” in nature, and there won’t be a tsunami wall (except for commercial real estate…
He reiterates his thesis. Most people think the economy will turn down with rates to follow. That hasn’t happened, and hands have been bloodied catching the falling knife. In fact, we could get a 4% GDP print. The current yield…