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“Inflation is not going down,” says Kevin O’Leary.  It’s north of 3.5% right now, and the Fed may have to raise rates by another 25 to 50 basis points. 

By Pucklore | November 7, 2023

Mr. O’Leary has a unique vantage into the small business world – of which data is actually current – and thinks America is “downsizing”.  Large purchases in young people’s lives will be substituted by smaller things – smaller houses, autos,…

Former Labor Secretary Seth Harris says, “There is no massive disruptive event out there that is going to cause this economy to get into a jobs recession.”  There is a sustainable and moderate growth in jobs and wages.

By Pucklore | November 5, 2023

Nor is there a sign of a recession or a dramatic slowdown.  There is no indication of significant layoffs.  Mr. Harris thinks that the most depressing thing about the economy is the constant recession predictions – when there are none. 

Brian Cornell, CEO of Target: “They’re buying less stuff.”  Consumer discretionary goods spending is noticeably down at Target stores with 7 consecutive quarters of both dollars and units declining.

By Pucklore | November 3, 2023

Less apparel, fewer toys and less home items are being bought, so there are some areas in the economy where there is a recession.  This is a reversal of the prior years in which they were chasing demand. Mr. Cornell…

Steve Eisman thinks the most interesting dynamic this earnings season was Visa vs. TransUnion.  The dichotomy was that consumer spending was strong but loan volume collapsed, i.e., big ticket items. 

By Pucklore | November 3, 2023

Mr. Eisman doesn’t think the Fed will lower rates next year (unless there is a bad recession) and would avoid buying the 10-year.  He seems to agree with Robert Kaplan that the economy won’t slow down due to the fiscal…

When Jamie Dimon looks over the horizon, he sees sticky inflation.  “I don’t see anything that is future disinflationary.”  Mr. Dimon also thinks that quantitative tightening will eventually “rattle the markets.”

By Pucklore | November 2, 2023

The Fed will more than likely need to raise rates again.  10-year bond yields should rise.  The size of the deficits, quantitative tightening, and nations selling will add to the supply.  However, he doesn’t think we’ll have a “Volcker Recession”…

“The daily borrowing for the next 90 days… $8.66B a day – a day!”  Next years’ projections are even higher.  “This is driving the yield curve,” says Richard Fisher. Fiscal policy is driving rates higher.

By Pucklore | November 1, 2023

Mr. Fisher doesn’t think there is a clearing mechanism for the market when there is so much borrowing.  As long as the fiscal authorities are out of control, we will live in a 5% world.  “They (the Fed) can work…

Leon Cooperman reiterates his conviction that interest rates will go higher, and the S&P 500 (at 19 times earnings) is too high.  He is concerned that the wealthy won’t be able to handle the deficit at 8%.  Even a 6% bond yield isn’t exciting.

By Pucklore | October 30, 2023

Mr. Cooperman still thinks the market is going nowhere for a very long time and reiterates the story of the Pharoah’s dream interpreted as having 7 prosperous years followed by 7 lean years.  We’ve pulled forward a lot of fiscal…

Roger Altman of Evercore doesn’t think the current environment is, “conducive to equity investing.”  IRRs will be declining.  He adheres to the opinion that the last 15 years was abnormal for interest rates, and we will be higher for longer.

By Pucklore | October 30, 2023

If you look at medium and long-term rates, the path of Fed policy, fiscal policy and the geopolitical landscape, it’s not a good environment for equities.  We are incentivized right now to invest in fixed income.  Becky Quick adds that…

Jason Mudrick says almost half the levered credit market is levered at more than 7 times EBITDA (excluding generous addbacks).  “That just doesn’t work in a 12, 13, 14 cost of debt market.”

By Pucklore | October 27, 2023

2/3 of non-investment grade credit is floating rate, so they will feel the pinch in real time.  However, Mr. Mudrick generally expects defaults to be “protracted” in nature, and there won’t be a tsunami wall (except for commercial real estate…

Humble victory lap for Jim Bianco – he essentially says stay the course.  “We’ve gone up by 500 bps, but we haven’t tightened by 500 bps….  The first several hundred was just getting back to neutral.”

By Pucklore | October 25, 2023

He reiterates his thesis.  Most people think the economy will turn down with rates to follow.  That hasn’t happened, and hands have been bloodied catching the falling knife.  In fact, we could get a 4% GDP print.  The current yield…

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