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Ron Baron seems to agree with Ray Kurzweil that economic growth will accelerate over the longer term, as businesses become less capital intensive.  Mr. Baron is an optimist and has never owned a bond.

By Pucklore | November 11, 2023

Mr. Baron reflects on the progress of the U.S. economy since the 1960s when it seemed the world was falling apart.  In the earlier video, he is excited about Tesla’s imminent rollout of $25,000 cars within a couple of years.

Over 70% of all U.S. residential housing stock is owned by those 50 years and older says Meredith Whitney.  And 86% of the “avocado toast” generation (18-38) does not own a home.

By Pucklore | November 10, 2023

Over $21T of home equity has been created over the last decade.  Most of this gain has accrued to older generations who own their homes free and clear.  So a 40% drawdown in home prices to pre-pandemic levels over many…

Ken Griffin says deglobalization will lead to higher inflation, potentially, for decades.  “We didn’t plan for an era with higher nominal and higher real rates when we went on the spending spree that created a $33T deficit…. There is no IMF for America.”

By Pucklore | November 10, 2023

Mr. Griffin says that instead of us saving for a rainy day, “We’re spending, at the government level, like a drunken sailor.”  He thinks the rise in the 10-year is due to the strong economy coupled with large, unsustainable deficits. …

“Inflation is not going down,” says Kevin O’Leary.  It’s north of 3.5% right now, and the Fed may have to raise rates by another 25 to 50 basis points. 

By Pucklore | November 7, 2023

Mr. O’Leary has a unique vantage into the small business world – of which data is actually current – and thinks America is “downsizing”.  Large purchases in young people’s lives will be substituted by smaller things – smaller houses, autos,…

Former Labor Secretary Seth Harris says, “There is no massive disruptive event out there that is going to cause this economy to get into a jobs recession.”  There is a sustainable and moderate growth in jobs and wages.

By Pucklore | November 5, 2023

Nor is there a sign of a recession or a dramatic slowdown.  There is no indication of significant layoffs.  Mr. Harris thinks that the most depressing thing about the economy is the constant recession predictions – when there are none. 

Brian Cornell, CEO of Target: “They’re buying less stuff.”  Consumer discretionary goods spending is noticeably down at Target stores with 7 consecutive quarters of both dollars and units declining.

By Pucklore | November 3, 2023

Less apparel, fewer toys and less home items are being bought, so there are some areas in the economy where there is a recession.  This is a reversal of the prior years in which they were chasing demand. Mr. Cornell…

Steve Eisman thinks the most interesting dynamic this earnings season was Visa vs. TransUnion.  The dichotomy was that consumer spending was strong but loan volume collapsed, i.e., big ticket items. 

By Pucklore | November 3, 2023

Mr. Eisman doesn’t think the Fed will lower rates next year (unless there is a bad recession) and would avoid buying the 10-year.  He seems to agree with Robert Kaplan that the economy won’t slow down due to the fiscal…

When Jamie Dimon looks over the horizon, he sees sticky inflation.  “I don’t see anything that is future disinflationary.”  Mr. Dimon also thinks that quantitative tightening will eventually “rattle the markets.”

By Pucklore | November 2, 2023

The Fed will more than likely need to raise rates again.  10-year bond yields should rise.  The size of the deficits, quantitative tightening, and nations selling will add to the supply.  However, he doesn’t think we’ll have a “Volcker Recession”…

“The daily borrowing for the next 90 days… $8.66B a day – a day!”  Next years’ projections are even higher.  “This is driving the yield curve,” says Richard Fisher. Fiscal policy is driving rates higher.

By Pucklore | November 1, 2023

Mr. Fisher doesn’t think there is a clearing mechanism for the market when there is so much borrowing.  As long as the fiscal authorities are out of control, we will live in a 5% world.  “They (the Fed) can work…

Leon Cooperman reiterates his conviction that interest rates will go higher, and the S&P 500 (at 19 times earnings) is too high.  He is concerned that the wealthy won’t be able to handle the deficit at 8%.  Even a 6% bond yield isn’t exciting.

By Pucklore | October 30, 2023

Mr. Cooperman still thinks the market is going nowhere for a very long time and reiterates the story of the Pharoah’s dream interpreted as having 7 prosperous years followed by 7 lean years.  We’ve pulled forward a lot of fiscal…

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