Recent Posts
Europe runs at a slower speed than the U.S. – at least vs the East Coast and Midwest where I have lived. They also appreciate some of the basic routines of life more – like eating. No seriously, let’s just…
Why are we at the Neutral Rate? Because some of the profligate easy money home buyers that bought late-and-large on debt are selling now. Many of these homes have been completely gutted, too but are now for sale indicating their…
But what about this scenario? The runaway national debt forces higher rates. Will buyers retreat and sellers sell to make a market then? In my local markets, I’m seeing sellers already selling and buyers cherry picking the right properties.
Lower rates, by definition, raise asset prices. Also, in lower rate environments, non-recourse type private equity firms and individuals with more unlimited capital means and relationships are able to acquire assets more easily than the normal home buyers. And many…
In a couple years, the United States should experience a complex and rapidly changing economic landscape. Looming on the horizon are potent threats that could converge to trigger an economic collapse by 2027: unsustainable budget deficits and widespread job losses…
If T-Bill revenue is about $300B per year based on $6T outstanding at 5%, and foreigners own 30%, that’s about $200B of income here in the U.S. Berkshire Hathaway alone takes about $9B of that with other major corps like…
My small business tells me that people are just consolidating. Those that work are working harder and maneuvering to make ends meet. And the ones that don’t work are still hunky dory. I’m more of a “Silver Tsunami” subscriber. And…
And yes, flips are getting much harder in this market. In my underwriting, I’ll try to double the value, and get a 13 cap. But sentimentally, beneath the old lady diapers, mice turds and filth, this particularly splendid home in…
The general trajectory has continued to be this: a solid economy, sticky inflation from services, massive deficits and government spending, AI enthusiasm. The job cuts from AI shouldn’t happen for years. And my Econ 101 text book said technology improvements…
I remember the instructor in Econ 101 saying that the Fed can “jawbone” desired outcomes. So does jawboning expected rate cuts serve in itself as a sort of rate cut? Perhaps the Fed’s goal is to maintain higher rates and…