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“If that happens, this Fed is not done.” And more rate hikes are on the table says Jim Bianco.

By Pucklore | August 11, 2023

If we see inflation spike (largely from gasoline) which would take the inflation rate into the high 3s, we would also see one more hike this year with potentially more in 2024.  Mr. Bianco also says that he is still…

Jim Bianco says, “The bank walk never stopped…and if the bank walk is continuing, and there is no growth in bank deposits, which there isn’t, there’s going to be no growth in lending.”

By Pucklore | August 10, 2023

In his referenced chart, the spread between what a bank will offer and what the money markets are offering is at 4.5% which is the highest we’ve ever scene.  He says, “this is the bank walk.”  So banks are acting…

Dan Clifton thinks that the Fed will have to step in and help the Treasury out in order to get interest costs lower. “We are at a very significant inflection point.”

By Pucklore | August 9, 2023

Ms. Evans is perplexed how the public seemed more interested with ballooning debt and deficits in 2011 vs now when interest rates are higher.  Mr. Clifton says that the deficit costs are a,” warning shot that we need to get…

Steve Forbes on whether the recession is coming: “We’re going to have the economic equivalent of walking pneumonia”.

By Pucklore | August 9, 2023

Mr. Forbes says it won’t be “enough to put you in the hospital, but you’re not going to feel very good about it.” 

Tim Adams reaffirms the China spillover effect from real estate and says we need to prepare for a negative shock.  Total debt is $300 Trillion worldwide or 350% of global GDP.

By Pucklore | August 8, 2023

Mr. Adams says that this debt growth (including $10 Trillion to US Debt over the last 7 years) is not sustainable.  However, in the near term he expects large fiscal deficits to continue until “someday when the markets stop taking…

Jonathan Ferro interviews Gershon Distenfeld and Jim Bianco.  Both seem to agree that inflation is here to stay.  Mr. Bianco says two and maybe three more hikes due to underestimating the Fed.

By Pucklore | August 8, 2023

Mr. Gershon talks about a secular change in restrictive trade occurring with Mr. Bianco referencing the complete shutdown of the global economy and its re-start from which persistently high inflation (3-4%) will prevail indefinitely.  Mr. Bianco says, “We are not…

Larry Fink says we need above 3% growth to avoid cuts to programs and that our deficits are out of control.  There is $7T in money market funds.  David Faber suggests that the treasury market will need the money.

By Pucklore | August 6, 2023

Mr. Fink says inflation will be stickier (between 3-4%), because the demand for workers will be extraordinary with the IRA and Infrastructure Act.  In the first part, Mr. Fink expounds on the long term health and dynamism of the U.S.…

“We are all dealing with failure right now” says David Friedberg.  And David Sacks says everyone is reforecasting down with startups seeing a recession in their sales. 

By Pucklore | August 5, 2023

David Sacks, David Friedberg and Chamath Palihapitiya fire on all cylinders with advice for entrepreneurs.  They discuss a toxic mess with bad board members not regulating bad decisions within many companies and “a lot of failure going on right now”…

Warren Buffett: “We don’t know where the shareholders of the big banks necessarily or the regional banks are heading.”

By Pucklore | July 10, 2023

It seems like Grandpa Warren and Grandpa Charlie are politely telling us they are mad at the banks. Caveat Emptor. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgRFEwjAS9s&t=11s

Bruce Richards: “After 15 months and 10 straight hikes… they’re done after today.”

By Pucklore | July 10, 2023

Mr. Richards believes that the Fed is done raising rates now but that they also won’t be lowering rates for a while. He believes that with student loan payments starting again later this year for over 1/5 of the work…

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