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Steve Forbes on whether the recession is coming: “We’re going to have the economic equivalent of walking pneumonia”.

By Pucklore | August 9, 2023

Mr. Forbes says it won’t be “enough to put you in the hospital, but you’re not going to feel very good about it.” 

Tim Adams reaffirms the China spillover effect from real estate and says we need to prepare for a negative shock.  Total debt is $300 Trillion worldwide or 350% of global GDP.

By Pucklore | August 8, 2023

Mr. Adams says that this debt growth (including $10 Trillion to US Debt over the last 7 years) is not sustainable.  However, in the near term he expects large fiscal deficits to continue until “someday when the markets stop taking…

Jonathan Ferro interviews Gershon Distenfeld and Jim Bianco.  Both seem to agree that inflation is here to stay.  Mr. Bianco says two and maybe three more hikes due to underestimating the Fed.

By Pucklore | August 8, 2023

Mr. Gershon talks about a secular change in restrictive trade occurring with Mr. Bianco referencing the complete shutdown of the global economy and its re-start from which persistently high inflation (3-4%) will prevail indefinitely.  Mr. Bianco says, “We are not…

Larry Fink says we need above 3% growth to avoid cuts to programs and that our deficits are out of control.  There is $7T in money market funds.  David Faber suggests that the treasury market will need the money.

By Pucklore | August 6, 2023

Mr. Fink says inflation will be stickier (between 3-4%), because the demand for workers will be extraordinary with the IRA and Infrastructure Act.  In the first part, Mr. Fink expounds on the long term health and dynamism of the U.S.…

“We are all dealing with failure right now” says David Friedberg.  And David Sacks says everyone is reforecasting down with startups seeing a recession in their sales. 

By Pucklore | August 5, 2023

David Sacks, David Friedberg and Chamath Palihapitiya fire on all cylinders with advice for entrepreneurs.  They discuss a toxic mess with bad board members not regulating bad decisions within many companies and “a lot of failure going on right now”…

Warren Buffett: “We don’t know where the shareholders of the big banks necessarily or the regional banks are heading.”

By Pucklore | July 10, 2023

It seems like Grandpa Warren and Grandpa Charlie are politely telling us they are mad at the banks. Caveat Emptor. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgRFEwjAS9s&t=11s

Bruce Richards: “After 15 months and 10 straight hikes… they’re done after today.”

By Pucklore | July 10, 2023

Mr. Richards believes that the Fed is done raising rates now but that they also won’t be lowering rates for a while. He believes that with student loan payments starting again later this year for over 1/5 of the work…

Jamie Dimon: “Everyone should be prepared for rates going higher from here…. The Fed doesn’t control the 5 and 10-year rate.”

By Pucklore | July 10, 2023

Mr. Dimon says that we are already seeing credit drying up with banks wanting to retain capital. The Fed doesn’t control the 5 and 10-year rate, so he thinks we should prepare for as high as 7% on the 10-year.…

Mike McGlone: “I think it is going to be worse than the financial crisis. I’m saying it’s very 1929-ish.”

By Pucklore | July 10, 2023

Mr. McGlone believes that we will experience significant deflation. He explains that we are in a similar situation to the Great Depression in that we are having bank runs. The Great Financial Crisis, until now, is similar to the Forgotten…

Jim Cramer says, “People have to go back to live with their parents in order for this cycle to be broken.” 

By Pucklore | July 10, 2023

Mr. Cramer’s housing statistics question where the housing breaking point is in order for the Fed to stop raising rates. If people are comfortable in their homes with 40% of home owners having no mortgage and 80% of the rest…

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