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We are a 70% consumption and 70% services economy which is more resilient to recession. Additionally, people have locked in mortgages, and the big spenders in the economy – tech- are not big borrowers. So Mr. Rieder thinks that in…
She thinks that recession is out of everyone’s mind, but that’s a mistake, and it should happen after a reacceleration of inflation.
Warren Buffett also says the only thing they aren’t sure of is whether to buy 3 month or 6 month T-Bills. Could the next round of the bank problems be around six months away? That would take us into early…
Mr. Howe discusses his generational theory and new book. History isn’t linear, so don’t extrapolate the current trends. It cycles every saeculum or approximately 100 years. He thinks that the current saeculum is expanding due to the longevity of life. …
Why aren’t inflows to Treasuries affecting yields? Because most of the inflows going into T-Bills are on the short end of the yield curve which the Fed is keeping high. The 10-year yield ought to move higher from here.
He says this will be the biggest crisis in the car market ever. Lenders such as Wells Fargo were lending up to 180% of the value of the vehicle. Banks are repossessing cars at a record rate and quickly sending…
In the second part of the video, RJ Talks discusses the rising amount of mortgage backed securities, especially, due to the Fed selling these bonds. Many funds have been discussing buying these fixed assets, but they have actually become even…
If we see inflation spike (largely from gasoline) which would take the inflation rate into the high 3s, we would also see one more hike this year with potentially more in 2024. Mr. Bianco also says that he is still…
In his referenced chart, the spread between what a bank will offer and what the money markets are offering is at 4.5% which is the highest we’ve ever scene. He says, “this is the bank walk.” So banks are acting…
Ms. Evans is perplexed how the public seemed more interested with ballooning debt and deficits in 2011 vs now when interest rates are higher. Mr. Clifton says that the deficit costs are a,” warning shot that we need to get…