Recent Posts
Mr. Lyngen is making a colossal call in the face of data indicating higher long term rates – for longer. He believes the lag effects of Fed policy will hit later this year, and the market has already priced in…
Auction prices are down with many cars not meeting their auction minimum price. Additionally, new cars are being listed for under MSRP.
Dr. Hassett’s Taylor Rule calculation output is 7% while Dr. Taylor’s – whom the rule is named after – is around 6%. The Taylor Rule basically says the Fed should raise rates when GDP or inflation is above trend and…
Mr. O’Leary says all of the fiscal stimulus is going to the S&P 500 firms, and they are the ones that can get the bank lending. If the smaller firms want funding, they have to go to the private lenders…
It may behoove the younger generations to speak with someone over 65 years old about their history and experience of interest rates. For everything, there is a season, and we may be headed away from constantly falling interest rates for…
Mr. Summers doesn’t think there will be much economic contraction, and we could even see a 5% Q3 GDP number. “Substantially enlarged government budget deficits means substantially more absorption of saving; means substantially more demand; and all of that means…
Mr. Ren asks, “How can China’s Lehman moment not be here already?” Unlike in the U.S. where large firms simply unload their recourse and non-recourse bad properties to the banks, China continues to refinance these loans with special bonds. This…
Jack Ablin of Cresset Capital also thinks that homes in the U.S. are $100K overvalued based on median income measures to current interest rates. Brian Sullivan interviews the panel. Mr. Gerli’s data indicates many SFR investors slowly being squeezed with…
Mr. Summers, who has been one of the most accurate economists since Covid, thinks inflation will run minimally at 2.5%. Additionally, the CBO thinks the deficit will be 7% of GDP by the end of the decade. With term premiums…
He states that the time to worry was last year when bond prices were falling. He also thinks that duration risk is lower this year than last year, and the Fed will cut rates next year. Inflation will come down…