If the U.S. economy is falling off the edge of the cliff, I don’t see it this year or even early next year. 

My small business tells me that people are just consolidating.  Those that work are working harder and maneuvering to make ends meet.  And the ones that don’t work are still hunky dory.  I’m more of a “Silver Tsunami” subscriber. 

And isn’t there a Pareto Distribution effect where the top 20% contribute to about 80% of the GDP?  According to ING, “The top 20% of households by income spend roughly the same dollar amount as the bottom 60%.”  So the reality is pretty darn close to theory.  The wealthy have locked in their mortgages if they even have them.  Also, even though they are slightly more stressed, they are productively steering the ship through the channel. 

Former Fed President Richard Fisher said, “We don’t seem to be terribly restrictive.”  Unemployment is at 3.9%, so inflationary impulses are more than likely still primed.  Oh, and we have massive trillions of stimulus coming with the Inflation Reduction and Chips Acts.

And the final anecdotal straw in my formulation is that I’ve never had so many real estate mailers arrive before from those wanting to buy my properties.  If the interest rates are restrictive, someone forgot to tell the mailer guys.