Former Dallas Fed Pres. Richard Fisher: “The real question for me is not the Fed here; it’s the auction schedule of how much and who is gonna digest over $800B in offerings of the Treasury… in the first quarter (of 2024).”

The U.S. is refinancing over half the Treasury debt over the next 3 years which has a current cost of carry between 2-3%.  The new debt, at the current rates, will double the cost of carry.  “We’ll have to see if the bond vigilantes come out.  So far, they haven’t,” says Mr. Fisher.  Additionally, the core rate is still above 3%. He does not think there will be a hike in December, nor would he vote for one. He thinks the Fed is doing its job after their “transitory” mistake and gradually slowing the economy.