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I think someone forgot to tell my local contractors and insurance that All items CPI is cooling at 3.2%, and the Fed will be cutting rates in June, so they can stop raising their rates significantly.  Insurance rates (especially on Illinois properties) are bumping up about 45% on each renewal. 

By Pucklore | March 13, 2024 | Comments Off on I think someone forgot to tell my local contractors and insurance that All items CPI is cooling at 3.2%, and the Fed will be cutting rates in June, so they can stop raising their rates significantly.  Insurance rates (especially on Illinois properties) are bumping up about 45% on each renewal. 

HVAC and plumbers are up 50% and 30% respectively on their trades just these last couple months.  And this is after their prior year increases of about 25%.  Not all users know about these latest contractor and insurance hikes yet. …

A boring dump into one’s account of T-Bill stimulus every few weeks seems like a decent shelter in a tumultuous world. 

By Pucklore | March 6, 2024 | Comments Off on A boring dump into one’s account of T-Bill stimulus every few weeks seems like a decent shelter in a tumultuous world. 

So Strauss and Howe wrote (in the late 80s/early 90s) that we should regard the years of 1924, 1855, 1766 and 1673 as a blue print for our current situation.  One would think the behavior and preparation that was successful…

Is Grandpa Warren implying that he thinks he may have to use his “Not-So-Secret Weapon” soon? 

By Pucklore | February 27, 2024 | Comments Off on Is Grandpa Warren implying that he thinks he may have to use his “Not-So-Secret Weapon” soon? 

He did reference casinos being run out of homes.  And it is true that human nature probably hasn’t changed much over the last 100+ years and panic could actually spread even more instantaneously with a Twittersphere turbocharger.  But he did…

I’m still seeing this: “What the heck did he just charge me? I need to raise my own rates again.”  Inflationary impulses still seem primed to me.

By Pucklore | February 17, 2024 | Comments Off on I’m still seeing this: “What the heck did he just charge me? I need to raise my own rates again.”  Inflationary impulses still seem primed to me.

Dr. Summers says housing is 30% of the core CPI calculation.  There may be some local housing bubble rents popping, but it seems the majority of housing owners and service providers are still raising rates…substantially.  Re-rents on mediocre three bedroom…

At a 5.5% discount rate, “People with the least education have seen some of the steepest growth in employment levels.”  And China is in deflation.  Correlation doesn’t always equal causation, but….

By Pucklore | February 8, 2024 | Comments Off on At a 5.5% discount rate, “People with the least education have seen some of the steepest growth in employment levels.”  And China is in deflation.  Correlation doesn’t always equal causation, but….

So China posted another month of negative consumer inflation at -.8%.  Foreign investors have been taking money out of China.  The construction job market is still relatively strong in the U.S.  Those that work in the physical world emblematic of…

“Investors prepare for interest rate cuts globally.”  May I take the over on this?

By Pucklore | January 31, 2024 | Comments Off on “Investors prepare for interest rate cuts globally.”  May I take the over on this?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/global-cross-border-money-flows-are-picking-up-from-a-record-low The current unemployment rate is 3.7%.  GDP growth was 4.9% in Q3 2023 and 3.3% in Q4 2023.  Massive government spending and deficits to stimulate the economy in 2024.  I recall my Econ 101 text book saying to lower…

“The recession is receding,” says Former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher. So why would you lower rates?  “Rates are normal now.  This is where things are supposed to be.”

By Pucklore | January 26, 2024 | Comments Off on “The recession is receding,” says Former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher. So why would you lower rates?  “Rates are normal now.  This is where things are supposed to be.”

Mr. Fisher thinks the economy is doing well, and the Fed won’t be politically accommodative to the President during the election year.  Firms aren’t laying off workers, but they’re not hiring much, and workers aren’t aggressively quitting either.  Furthermore, companies…

Co-founder of Palantir Joe Lonsdale says AI will create productivity gains – especially, and more immediately in healthcare billing. 

By Pucklore | January 23, 2024 | Comments Off on Co-founder of Palantir Joe Lonsdale says AI will create productivity gains – especially, and more immediately in healthcare billing. 

Andrew Ross Sorkin asks if AI will just be just a commoditized feature of everything or if it will actually create new value in products.  Joe Lonsdale says it will create productivity. 

World Bank Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose says, “We are expecting interest rates, especially, real interest rates to be elevated for the foreseeable future.”

By Pucklore | January 10, 2024 | Comments Off on World Bank Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose says, “We are expecting interest rates, especially, real interest rates to be elevated for the foreseeable future.”

This is because global inflation will be around 3% – still too high for many central banks.  Dr. Kose also expects more countries in “frontier markets” to default on their debt, as global growth from 2020-2024 is expected to be…

“Plenty of more stimulus back into the economy at a time when they are desperately trying to get prices down,” says Scott Phillips…about Australia.  This could be the “equivalent of 2–3 rate cuts.”

By Pucklore | January 9, 2024 | Comments Off on “Plenty of more stimulus back into the economy at a time when they are desperately trying to get prices down,” says Scott Phillips…about Australia.  This could be the “equivalent of 2–3 rate cuts.”

So interest rate relief in 2024 will be unlikely in Australia.  The United States also has their own stimulus coming through in 2024 of which the GDP growth effects could be more than anticipated, i.e., inflationary.  Likewise, would the Fed…

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