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“The majority of fund managers expect lower interest rates,” says Jim Bianco.  Therefore, expect higher-for-longer and a “no landing,” as this is still the contrarian play.

By Pucklore | September 12, 2023 | Comments Off on “The majority of fund managers expect lower interest rates,” says Jim Bianco.  Therefore, expect higher-for-longer and a “no landing,” as this is still the contrarian play.

Mr. Bianco shows multiple graphs to support this thesis, but the first ones are deceptive.  While showing a surge in the shorting of the Treasury market – which on the surface would indicate a general positioning for lower rates in…

Jeff Greene says, “I think we’re just in the first inning of this (commercial RE) correction… and hold on to your cash.”  He thinks there will be opportunities in 12-24 months, “when the well runs dry.”

By Pucklore | September 11, 2023 | Comments Off on Jeff Greene says, “I think we’re just in the first inning of this (commercial RE) correction… and hold on to your cash.”  He thinks there will be opportunities in 12-24 months, “when the well runs dry.”

Mr. Frank gives an example of a family office being offered two premier office properties in Manhattan that still aren’t priced low enough.  Mr. Greene thinks the worst is yet to come for Class B and C properties as well…

“I’m one of the few people who don’t think interest rates are all that high,” says Leon Cooperman.  “I wouldn’t be surprised if the 10-year got to 5.5%….  There is no indication that the Fed is restrictive….  I don’t expect we see another high in the market for a long time.”

By Pucklore | September 8, 2023 | Comments Off on “I’m one of the few people who don’t think interest rates are all that high,” says Leon Cooperman.  “I wouldn’t be surprised if the 10-year got to 5.5%….  There is no indication that the Fed is restrictive….  I don’t expect we see another high in the market for a long time.”

Mr. Cooperman also says that the S&P 500 is trading at 19 or 20 times earnings – too high, i.e., the equity risk premium is too low.  He also doesn’t see a recession on the near horizon, just eventually.  As…

“They will not raise rates this month… but what they will do is keep the door open for at least one more rate hike in the future,” says Dr. Mohamed El-Erian to Becky Quick.

By Pucklore | September 8, 2023 | Comments Off on “They will not raise rates this month… but what they will do is keep the door open for at least one more rate hike in the future,” says Dr. Mohamed El-Erian to Becky Quick.

The economy is strong, and we have supply issues, specifically, oil.  Dr. El-Erian and Mr. Bianco seem to be in the same camp for rates continuing to rise and a resiliently strong economy.  Dr. El Erian isn’t worried about stagflation…

T-Bills get 5.5%.  Cap rates on decent Midwest homes are a conservative 9%, but there is actual work to do, and it dries up your liquidity if there is indeed a major shock like 2008.  

By Pucklore | September 3, 2023 | Comments Off on T-Bills get 5.5%.  Cap rates on decent Midwest homes are a conservative 9%, but there is actual work to do, and it dries up your liquidity if there is indeed a major shock like 2008.  

Competition is still fierce.  The I-will-buy-your-house mailers still stream in. Some of the overleveraged are selling into the market, but there aren’t any screaming deals anymore, and if there are, they get bid to low returns with lots of improvement…

Pictures recently came in of Congress discussing monumental legislation in the chambers:

By Pucklore | August 31, 2023 | Comments Off on Pictures recently came in of Congress discussing monumental legislation in the chambers:

Ian Lyngen of BMO says the 10-year Treasury is a “screaming buy,” and its yield will be around 3% the first half of 2024 getting to 3.5% – 3.75% by the end of this year.

By Pucklore | August 31, 2023 | Comments Off on Ian Lyngen of BMO says the 10-year Treasury is a “screaming buy,” and its yield will be around 3% the first half of 2024 getting to 3.5% – 3.75% by the end of this year.

Mr. Lyngen is making a colossal call in the face of data indicating higher long term rates – for longer. He believes the lag effects of Fed policy will hit later this year, and the market has already priced in…

Brandon from Car Questions Answered (who works in the trenches with his own used car dealership) reiterates that used and new car sales prices are tumbling, and one should wait to buy a car.

By Pucklore | August 31, 2023 | Comments Off on Brandon from Car Questions Answered (who works in the trenches with his own used car dealership) reiterates that used and new car sales prices are tumbling, and one should wait to buy a car.

Auction prices are down with many cars not meeting their auction minimum price.  Additionally, new cars are being listed for under MSRP.

“So yeah, I think the Fed is going to have to hike quite a bit more,” says economist Dr. Kevin Hassett to Joe Kernen.  “Deficit Spending… is just absolutely insane.”

By Pucklore | August 30, 2023 | Comments Off on “So yeah, I think the Fed is going to have to hike quite a bit more,” says economist Dr. Kevin Hassett to Joe Kernen.  “Deficit Spending… is just absolutely insane.”

Dr. Hassett’s Taylor Rule calculation output is 7% while Dr. Taylor’s – whom the rule is named after – is around 6%.  The Taylor Rule basically says the Fed should raise rates when GDP or inflation is above trend and…

Kevin O’Leary says the banks aren’t lending to small businesses.  And if you have payroll at a regional bank, you’re moving it to a bigger bank.

By Pucklore | August 30, 2023 | Comments Off on Kevin O’Leary says the banks aren’t lending to small businesses.  And if you have payroll at a regional bank, you’re moving it to a bigger bank.

Mr. O’Leary says all of the fiscal stimulus is going to the S&P 500 firms, and they are the ones that can get the bank lending. If the smaller firms want funding, they have to go to the private lenders…

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