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Competition is still fierce. The I-will-buy-your-house mailers still stream in. Some of the overleveraged are selling into the market, but there aren’t any screaming deals anymore, and if there are, they get bid to low returns with lots of improvement…
It may behoove the younger generations to speak with someone over 65 years old about their history and experience of interest rates. For everything, there is a season, and we may be headed away from constantly falling interest rates for…
Mr. Ren asks, “How can China’s Lehman moment not be here already?” Unlike in the U.S. where large firms simply unload their recourse and non-recourse bad properties to the banks, China continues to refinance these loans with special bonds. This…
Mr. Summers, who has been one of the most accurate economists since Covid, thinks inflation will run minimally at 2.5%. Additionally, the CBO thinks the deficit will be 7% of GDP by the end of the decade. With term premiums…
Mr. Howe discusses his generational theory and new book. History isn’t linear, so don’t extrapolate the current trends. It cycles every saeculum or approximately 100 years. He thinks that the current saeculum is expanding due to the longevity of life. …
In his referenced chart, the spread between what a bank will offer and what the money markets are offering is at 4.5% which is the highest we’ve ever scene. He says, “this is the bank walk.” So banks are acting…
Mr. Adams says that this debt growth (including $10 Trillion to US Debt over the last 7 years) is not sustainable. However, in the near term he expects large fiscal deficits to continue until “someday when the markets stop taking…
Mr. Gershon talks about a secular change in restrictive trade occurring with Mr. Bianco referencing the complete shutdown of the global economy and its re-start from which persistently high inflation (3-4%) will prevail indefinitely. Mr. Bianco says, “We are not…
Mr. Fink says inflation will be stickier (between 3-4%), because the demand for workers will be extraordinary with the IRA and Infrastructure Act. In the first part, Mr. Fink expounds on the long term health and dynamism of the U.S.…
It seems like Grandpa Warren and Grandpa Charlie are politely telling us they are mad at the banks. Caveat Emptor. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgRFEwjAS9s&t=11s