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The most important line of Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech: “The wide range of estimates of these lags suggests that there may be significant further drag in the pipeline.”

By Pucklore | August 28, 2023 | Comments Off on The most important line of Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech: “The wide range of estimates of these lags suggests that there may be significant further drag in the pipeline.”

It may behoove the younger generations to speak with someone over 65 years old about their history and experience of interest rates. For everything, there is a season, and we may be headed away from constantly falling interest rates for…

Shuli Ren from Bloomberg says, “China’s financial system seems on the brink of collapse.”

By Pucklore | August 23, 2023 | Comments Off on Shuli Ren from Bloomberg says, “China’s financial system seems on the brink of collapse.”

Mr. Ren asks, “How can China’s Lehman moment not be here already?”  Unlike in the U.S. where large firms simply unload their recourse and non-recourse bad properties to the banks, China continues to refinance these loans with special bonds.  This…

The Fed is selling its bonds, and regulators are making it harder for banks to buy longer term bonds.  “We are in a very different era,” says Larry Summers.   “You’re looking at 4.75 on the 10-year.” 

By Pucklore | August 18, 2023 | Comments Off on The Fed is selling its bonds, and regulators are making it harder for banks to buy longer term bonds.  “We are in a very different era,” says Larry Summers.   “You’re looking at 4.75 on the 10-year.” 

Mr. Summers, who has been one of the most accurate economists since Covid, thinks inflation will run minimally at 2.5%.  Additionally, the CBO thinks the deficit will be 7% of GDP by the end of the decade.  With term premiums…

We are in the middle of the 4th Turning which could last until the early 2030s.  Adam Taggart has the privilege of interviewing the historian Neil Howe.

By Pucklore | August 12, 2023 | Comments Off on We are in the middle of the 4th Turning which could last until the early 2030s.  Adam Taggart has the privilege of interviewing the historian Neil Howe.

Mr. Howe discusses his generational theory and new book.  History isn’t linear, so don’t extrapolate the current trends.  It cycles every saeculum or approximately 100 years.  He thinks that the current saeculum is expanding due to the longevity of life. …

Jim Bianco says, “The bank walk never stopped…and if the bank walk is continuing, and there is no growth in bank deposits, which there isn’t, there’s going to be no growth in lending.”

By Pucklore | August 10, 2023 | Comments Off on Jim Bianco says, “The bank walk never stopped…and if the bank walk is continuing, and there is no growth in bank deposits, which there isn’t, there’s going to be no growth in lending.”

In his referenced chart, the spread between what a bank will offer and what the money markets are offering is at 4.5% which is the highest we’ve ever scene.  He says, “this is the bank walk.”  So banks are acting…

Tim Adams reaffirms the China spillover effect from real estate and says we need to prepare for a negative shock.  Total debt is $300 Trillion worldwide or 350% of global GDP.

By Pucklore | August 8, 2023 | Comments Off on Tim Adams reaffirms the China spillover effect from real estate and says we need to prepare for a negative shock.  Total debt is $300 Trillion worldwide or 350% of global GDP.

Mr. Adams says that this debt growth (including $10 Trillion to US Debt over the last 7 years) is not sustainable.  However, in the near term he expects large fiscal deficits to continue until “someday when the markets stop taking…

Jonathan Ferro interviews Gershon Distenfeld and Jim Bianco.  Both seem to agree that inflation is here to stay.  Mr. Bianco says two and maybe three more hikes due to underestimating the Fed.

By Pucklore | August 8, 2023 | Comments Off on Jonathan Ferro interviews Gershon Distenfeld and Jim Bianco.  Both seem to agree that inflation is here to stay.  Mr. Bianco says two and maybe three more hikes due to underestimating the Fed.

Mr. Gershon talks about a secular change in restrictive trade occurring with Mr. Bianco referencing the complete shutdown of the global economy and its re-start from which persistently high inflation (3-4%) will prevail indefinitely.  Mr. Bianco says, “We are not…

Larry Fink says we need above 3% growth to avoid cuts to programs and that our deficits are out of control.  There is $7T in money market funds.  David Faber suggests that the treasury market will need the money.

By Pucklore | August 6, 2023 | Comments Off on Larry Fink says we need above 3% growth to avoid cuts to programs and that our deficits are out of control.  There is $7T in money market funds.  David Faber suggests that the treasury market will need the money.

Mr. Fink says inflation will be stickier (between 3-4%), because the demand for workers will be extraordinary with the IRA and Infrastructure Act.  In the first part, Mr. Fink expounds on the long term health and dynamism of the U.S.…

Warren Buffett: “We don’t know where the shareholders of the big banks necessarily or the regional banks are heading.”

By Pucklore | July 10, 2023 | Comments Off on Warren Buffett: “We don’t know where the shareholders of the big banks necessarily or the regional banks are heading.”

It seems like Grandpa Warren and Grandpa Charlie are politely telling us they are mad at the banks. Caveat Emptor. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgRFEwjAS9s&t=11s

Jamie Dimon: “Everyone should be prepared for rates going higher from here…. The Fed doesn’t control the 5 and 10-year rate.”

By Pucklore | July 10, 2023 | Comments Off on Jamie Dimon: “Everyone should be prepared for rates going higher from here…. The Fed doesn’t control the 5 and 10-year rate.”

Mr. Dimon says that we are already seeing credit drying up with banks wanting to retain capital. The Fed doesn’t control the 5 and 10-year rate, so he thinks we should prepare for as high as 7% on the 10-year.…

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