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We’ll have the Inauguration, but then when does the 2nd Trump Term Honeymoon end?  I think it’s this year.

By Pucklore | January 9, 2025 |

Eventually, there will be chaos in late 2025.  The blame game will start, and 10 year bonds across developed nations will continue sinking around the world.  It’s really the simple economics equations that work best.  Will $3T of mostly shorter…

Cap rates in the old glory grounds of the Midwest on nice single family homes are now about 6 1/4% for a regular market deal – at non rip-off rents.  You might get a 10% cap…

By Pucklore | December 3, 2024 |

fly by once in a quarter, but there will be zero to negative equity gain, and you’ll feel uncomfortable buying at the extreme top even though it’s a 10.  If we have a major crisis, is a Midwest 10% cap…

Apparently, we aren’t supposed to analyze early voting. May we analyze shy Trump voter percentages?

By Pucklore | October 31, 2024 |

At this time in 2020 President Biden was polling 6 points ahead in Pennsylvania, 9 points ahead in Michigan and 8 points ahead in Wisconsin. And Ohio was tied. Respectively, at this point in time in 2016, Secretary Clinton was…

According to the battleground polls, JD Vance’s debate performance solidifies a Trump victory.  This will  give a short-term economic boost through mid-2025.

By Pucklore | October 11, 2024 |

However, I am beginning to see a little pushback towards higher rents.  Tenants are getting somewhat pickier in their demands.  I’m glad I keep them a little lower.  It helps the Tenant a little, and I am okay with that,…

A Trump victory is inflationary, and a Harris victory is deflationary. 

By Pucklore | September 17, 2024 |

I’ve lived on the border of Illinois and Wisconsin and have seen the effects of each state’s policies on my businesses.  Good luck getting your furnace guy to install a new water heater while he’s there in certain parts of…

I think the Fed should stay put on rates in September.  Some of the gloom may be attributable to the realization that we have 2.5 months left before the election, i.e., UNCERTAINTY.

By Pucklore | August 21, 2024 |

Once the election is over, and power is peacefully transferred, I think there will be a psychological relief bounce over some sort of CERTAINTY.  Rental demand is still strong in my area.  If Tenants move out, Landlords are indifferent and…

The S&P 500 is still up over 12% this year, so a 300 pt drop and a spike from 3.4% – 4.3% in the unemployment maketh not a necessity to cut rates.

By Pucklore | August 13, 2024 |

A healthy long-term economy needs some thinning of the forest for strong trees to grow. If we are doomed to recession this year, where are all the layoffs?  Are business owners that run good businesses supposed to start calling in…

The Sahm rule is based on history and works 100%… until it doesn’t.

By Pucklore | August 3, 2024 |

The yield curve was basically infallible as well, so declaring we are headed imminently towards recession could be wrong. While a bit lonely today, I shall stay in the higher for longer camp. For example, on July 5, 2022, when…

If the dual mandate is stable prices and unemployment, seems like unemployment at 4.3% isn’t terrible, and the Fed should focus on the inflation rate (3%). 

By Pucklore | August 2, 2024 |

So the stock market is just off its historic high around 5,500 on the S&P.  Unemployment at 4.3% is hovering well below its long term average of 5.7%.  GDP growth is doing well at 2.8% YoY.  We’ve had a 15…

I disagree that Americans don’t need trips to Europe.  I need them.  Just went to Vienna for a week, and it was absolutely wonderful.  

By Pucklore | July 25, 2024 |

Europe runs at a slower speed than the U.S. – at least vs the East Coast and Midwest where I have lived.  They also appreciate some of the basic routines of life more – like eating.  No seriously, let’s just…

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