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Kevin O’Leary says the banks aren’t lending to small businesses.  And if you have payroll at a regional bank, you’re moving it to a bigger bank.

By Pucklore | August 30, 2023 | Comments Off on Kevin O’Leary says the banks aren’t lending to small businesses.  And if you have payroll at a regional bank, you’re moving it to a bigger bank.

Mr. O’Leary says all of the fiscal stimulus is going to the S&P 500 firms, and they are the ones that can get the bank lending. If the smaller firms want funding, they have to go to the private lenders…

The most important line of Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech: “The wide range of estimates of these lags suggests that there may be significant further drag in the pipeline.”

By Pucklore | August 28, 2023 | Comments Off on The most important line of Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech: “The wide range of estimates of these lags suggests that there may be significant further drag in the pipeline.”

It may behoove the younger generations to speak with someone over 65 years old about their history and experience of interest rates. For everything, there is a season, and we may be headed away from constantly falling interest rates for…

“My best guess is that we are going to need more interest rate increasing,” says Larry Summers. 

By Pucklore | August 26, 2023 | Comments Off on “My best guess is that we are going to need more interest rate increasing,” says Larry Summers. 

Mr. Summers doesn’t think there will be much economic contraction, and we could even see a 5% Q3 GDP number.  “Substantially enlarged government budget deficits means substantially more absorption of saving; means substantially more demand; and all of that means…

Shuli Ren from Bloomberg says, “China’s financial system seems on the brink of collapse.”

By Pucklore | August 23, 2023 | Comments Off on Shuli Ren from Bloomberg says, “China’s financial system seems on the brink of collapse.”

Mr. Ren asks, “How can China’s Lehman moment not be here already?”  Unlike in the U.S. where large firms simply unload their recourse and non-recourse bad properties to the banks, China continues to refinance these loans with special bonds.  This…

Nick Gerli says, “There is pressure building in the background.”  He doesn’t think homeowners will increase the housing supply – but SFR investors will.

By Pucklore | August 18, 2023 | Comments Off on Nick Gerli says, “There is pressure building in the background.”  He doesn’t think homeowners will increase the housing supply – but SFR investors will.

Jack Ablin of Cresset Capital also thinks that homes in the U.S. are $100K overvalued based on median income measures to current interest rates. Brian Sullivan interviews the panel. Mr. Gerli’s data indicates many SFR investors slowly being squeezed with…

The Fed is selling its bonds, and regulators are making it harder for banks to buy longer term bonds.  “We are in a very different era,” says Larry Summers.   “You’re looking at 4.75 on the 10-year.” 

By Pucklore | August 18, 2023 | Comments Off on The Fed is selling its bonds, and regulators are making it harder for banks to buy longer term bonds.  “We are in a very different era,” says Larry Summers.   “You’re looking at 4.75 on the 10-year.” 

Mr. Summers, who has been one of the most accurate economists since Covid, thinks inflation will run minimally at 2.5%.  Additionally, the CBO thinks the deficit will be 7% of GDP by the end of the decade.  With term premiums…

10-year treasuries just hit a 15 year high.  Is everyone too sanguine about this, asks Kelly Evans?  She and Joe Kernen are flabbergasted that Matt Hornbach is unconcerned by the current rate environment.  Mr. Hornbach says that the Fed is done hiking.

By Pucklore | August 18, 2023 | Comments Off on 10-year treasuries just hit a 15 year high.  Is everyone too sanguine about this, asks Kelly Evans?  She and Joe Kernen are flabbergasted that Matt Hornbach is unconcerned by the current rate environment.  Mr. Hornbach says that the Fed is done hiking.

He states that the time to worry was last year when bond prices were falling. He also thinks that duration risk is lower this year than last year, and the Fed will cut rates next year.  Inflation will come down…

“If you don’t like the numbers, you change them – or stop publishing them,” says Andrew Ross Sorkin about Chinese economic numbers.  Beijing will stop publishing figures for youth unemployment in China, because it’s so bad.

By Pucklore | August 17, 2023 | Comments Off on “If you don’t like the numbers, you change them – or stop publishing them,” says Andrew Ross Sorkin about Chinese economic numbers.  Beijing will stop publishing figures for youth unemployment in China, because it’s so bad.

Anna Ashton from Eurasia group has heard that youth unemployment numbers could be worse than the last reported rate by Beijing of over 21%.  It could actually be as high as 40%.  She says some problems in China could be…

We are seeing record credit card debt, the anti-inflationary drivers of growth are reversing and China is slowing down, says Scott Sperling of THL.

By Pucklore | August 17, 2023 | Comments Off on We are seeing record credit card debt, the anti-inflationary drivers of growth are reversing and China is slowing down, says Scott Sperling of THL.

Mr. Sperling believes that inflation will stay between 3-5% due to energy prices and wage pressures.

If you helicopter drop more money than we spent in World War 2, and unit labor costs continue to rise without productivity gains, you will get higher inflation and higher for longer from the Fed, says Barry Bannister of Stifel.

By Pucklore | August 15, 2023 | Comments Off on If you helicopter drop more money than we spent in World War 2, and unit labor costs continue to rise without productivity gains, you will get higher inflation and higher for longer from the Fed, says Barry Bannister of Stifel.

Joe Kernen wonders if we will have to pay the piper after all the Keynesian stimulus, which the younger leaders may not understand.  Mr. Bannister does not think we will reach inflation adjusted highs again in the S&P 500 for…

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