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“I think this is more normal than zero interest for 10, 12, 14 years,” says former Barclays CEO Bob Diamond to Andrew Ross Sorkin.

By Pucklore | September 17, 2023 | Comments Off on “I think this is more normal than zero interest for 10, 12, 14 years,” says former Barclays CEO Bob Diamond to Andrew Ross Sorkin.

Mr. Diamond seems to be in the higher-for-longer camp.  He thinks we have adjusted to higher rates.  People are relaxed, so no interest rate decreases next year.  He notes that during 2008-2019 the Fed Funds averaged less than 1% –…

Michael Shumacher of Wells Fargo thinks 10-year bond yields go down from here.  He doesn’t think the U.S. Government can “tolerate” 6-7% on the 10-year.

By Pucklore | September 17, 2023 | Comments Off on Michael Shumacher of Wells Fargo thinks 10-year bond yields go down from here.  He doesn’t think the U.S. Government can “tolerate” 6-7% on the 10-year.

Mr. Shumacher thinks that foreign and domestic bond buyers would put a stop to any rise in long-term interest rates, and the 10-year will actually be around 3.50% by year end. He does not ascribe to the higher-for-longer view. But…

“Today, we just raise prices,” says Jim Bianco.  “The economy has fundamentally changed since 2020.”

By Pucklore | September 16, 2023 | Comments Off on “Today, we just raise prices,” says Jim Bianco.  “The economy has fundamentally changed since 2020.”

All of these labor battles are indicative of the new “mosaic,” whereby companies have no problems raising prices, and oil climbs higher, but there is no demand destruction.  This is a no landing scenario.  Dr. El-Erian asks Mr. Bianco if…

Zhiwei Ren of Penn Mutual questions the ability of asset managers to purchase duration.  He believes there is a risk that demand fails to meet the Treasury supply.

By Pucklore | September 15, 2023 | Comments Off on Zhiwei Ren of Penn Mutual questions the ability of asset managers to purchase duration.  He believes there is a risk that demand fails to meet the Treasury supply.

“But asset managers’ positions are very long on Treasuries already; they don’t have room to buy more duration. If no one steps in to purchase the tremendous supply of Treasuries coming to the market soon, we will have a supply-demand…

Cash is no longer trash for Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates.  Don’t buy long-term bonds either.  “The world will be radically different in 5 years.”

By Pucklore | September 15, 2023 | Comments Off on Cash is no longer trash for Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates.  Don’t buy long-term bonds either.  “The world will be radically different in 5 years.”

He says that, temporarily, cash is a good place to have your money, as one is adequately compensated.  However, he doesn’t think these interest rates will be sustained at the current rate, as the global debt dynamics start shifting.  Additionally,…

“The majority of fund managers expect lower interest rates,” says Jim Bianco.  Therefore, expect higher-for-longer and a “no landing,” as this is still the contrarian play.

By Pucklore | September 12, 2023 | Comments Off on “The majority of fund managers expect lower interest rates,” says Jim Bianco.  Therefore, expect higher-for-longer and a “no landing,” as this is still the contrarian play.

Mr. Bianco shows multiple graphs to support this thesis, but the first ones are deceptive.  While showing a surge in the shorting of the Treasury market – which on the surface would indicate a general positioning for lower rates in…

Jeff Greene says, “I think we’re just in the first inning of this (commercial RE) correction… and hold on to your cash.”  He thinks there will be opportunities in 12-24 months, “when the well runs dry.”

By Pucklore | September 11, 2023 | Comments Off on Jeff Greene says, “I think we’re just in the first inning of this (commercial RE) correction… and hold on to your cash.”  He thinks there will be opportunities in 12-24 months, “when the well runs dry.”

Mr. Frank gives an example of a family office being offered two premier office properties in Manhattan that still aren’t priced low enough.  Mr. Greene thinks the worst is yet to come for Class B and C properties as well…

“I’m one of the few people who don’t think interest rates are all that high,” says Leon Cooperman.  “I wouldn’t be surprised if the 10-year got to 5.5%….  There is no indication that the Fed is restrictive….  I don’t expect we see another high in the market for a long time.”

By Pucklore | September 8, 2023 | Comments Off on “I’m one of the few people who don’t think interest rates are all that high,” says Leon Cooperman.  “I wouldn’t be surprised if the 10-year got to 5.5%….  There is no indication that the Fed is restrictive….  I don’t expect we see another high in the market for a long time.”

Mr. Cooperman also says that the S&P 500 is trading at 19 or 20 times earnings – too high, i.e., the equity risk premium is too low.  He also doesn’t see a recession on the near horizon, just eventually.  As…

“They will not raise rates this month… but what they will do is keep the door open for at least one more rate hike in the future,” says Dr. Mohamed El-Erian to Becky Quick.

By Pucklore | September 8, 2023 | Comments Off on “They will not raise rates this month… but what they will do is keep the door open for at least one more rate hike in the future,” says Dr. Mohamed El-Erian to Becky Quick.

The economy is strong, and we have supply issues, specifically, oil.  Dr. El-Erian and Mr. Bianco seem to be in the same camp for rates continuing to rise and a resiliently strong economy.  Dr. El Erian isn’t worried about stagflation…

T-Bills get 5.5%.  Cap rates on decent Midwest homes are a conservative 9%, but there is actual work to do, and it dries up your liquidity if there is indeed a major shock like 2008.  

By Pucklore | September 3, 2023 | Comments Off on T-Bills get 5.5%.  Cap rates on decent Midwest homes are a conservative 9%, but there is actual work to do, and it dries up your liquidity if there is indeed a major shock like 2008.  

Competition is still fierce.  The I-will-buy-your-house mailers still stream in. Some of the overleveraged are selling into the market, but there aren’t any screaming deals anymore, and if there are, they get bid to low returns with lots of improvement…

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