Apparently, we aren’t supposed to analyze early voting. May we analyze shy Trump voter percentages?

At this time in 2020 President Biden was polling 6 points ahead in Pennsylvania, 9 points ahead in Michigan and 8 points ahead in Wisconsin. And Ohio was tied.

Respectively, at this point in time in 2016, Secretary Clinton was was polling 5 points ahead in Pennsylvania, 6 points ahead in both Michigan and Wisconsin. And Ohio was tied again. In all of these races, except for Michigan in 2020 (with a 3 point margin), the races were decided by 1 percentage point.

May we extrapolate, at minimum then, a 3 percentage point shy Trump voter bump on each election? Again, these are people that work in Universities and elsewhere whose jobs or social position may be in jeopardy by admitting to the wrong person their political alignment. They’ve learned to keep their mouths shut for self preservation.

Therefore, if the averages currently have Trump ahead in Pennsylvania by 1 point, down by 1 point in Michigan, and up by 1 point in Wisconsin, here is my final estimate.

Trump will win Pennsylvania by 4 points, Michigan by 2 points and Wisconsin by 4 points.