Is Grandpa Warren implying that he thinks he may have to use his “Not-So-Secret Weapon” soon? 

He did reference casinos being run out of homes.  And it is true that human nature probably hasn’t changed much over the last 100+ years and panic could actually spread even more instantaneously with a Twittersphere turbocharger.  But he did seem to belabor the point on his $167B boat load this year.

Right now, the gist of a potential “credit event” seems to be a nothing burger.  Here it is:

“Large Company A loses Tower A in Fund A they bought for $150M back in 2020.  Large Company A raises Fund B and buys Tower A with Fund B for $40M in 2025.  Bank C gets hurt.  No bailouts needed.”

Many loan rates, however, will be resetting this year.  And there will be increased costs from inflation.  $95 Billion per month is being removed from the economy as well through quantitative tightening.  For many who overborrowed and didn’t plan for a rainy season, their roof could start leaking.  The tear-off and re-deck won’t happen until the Fed lowers rates, but it may be too late and other parts of the house will deteriorate as well.

But AI and the stock market are humming along.  The job market is still pretty good for the regular schmo.  We are still dancing to the American tune this year.