Perhaps the unemployment rate went up, because workers came back.  Claudia Sahm’s rule of .5% unemployment rises always followed by recessions is in play.  Is this time different?  (3.4% -> 3.9% already.)

Perhaps the unemployment increase is supply related (workers coming back) and not the classic demand loop.  Many rules have been broken since the pandemic, so perhaps the “Sahm Rule” is next to fall.  Last year had two quarters of a decline in GDP growth which has only occurred inside a recession since WWII.   But there was no recession.  Dr. Sahm sees no recession on the near horizon either.