Financial historian Jim Grant reiterates that we are in a long-term bear trend for bonds after 40 years.  “Interest rates are unusual if not unique in financial menagerie, because they tend to trend in generational length phases….  It’s been true in this country since the Civil War.”

“Every big move in financial markets… tends to climax in some absurdity, some valuation excess.”  This one ended with negative interest rates to the tune of $15T of bonds.  “So we had 40 years down.  Before that, we had 35 years up.”

Becky Quick asks Mr. Grant if he thinks people who are making 0% bets will be saved.  He doesn’t think they will be.  Rather, we are in for a changing era of twists and turns to higher long-term interest rates.

He also finds it interesting that Fed official Austan Goolsbee finds rates restrictive, yet his own financial conditions index has them loosening.