Month: August 2024

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I think the Fed should stay put on rates in September.  Some of the gloom may be attributable to the realization that we have 2.5 months left before the election, i.e., UNCERTAINTY.

By Pucklore | August 21, 2024 |

Once the election is over, and power is peacefully transferred, I think there will be a psychological relief bounce over some sort of CERTAINTY.  Rental demand is still strong in my area.  If Tenants move out, Landlords are indifferent and…

The S&P 500 is still up over 12% this year, so a 300 pt drop and a spike from 3.4% – 4.3% in the unemployment maketh not a necessity to cut rates.

By Pucklore | August 13, 2024 |

A healthy long-term economy needs some thinning of the forest for strong trees to grow. If we are doomed to recession this year, where are all the layoffs?  Are business owners that run good businesses supposed to start calling in…

The Sahm rule is based on history and works 100%… until it doesn’t.

By Pucklore | August 3, 2024 |

The yield curve was basically infallible as well, so declaring we are headed imminently towards recession could be wrong. While a bit lonely today, I shall stay in the higher for longer camp. For example, on July 5, 2022, when…

If the dual mandate is stable prices and unemployment, seems like unemployment at 4.3% isn’t terrible, and the Fed should focus on the inflation rate (3%). 

By Pucklore | August 2, 2024 |

So the stock market is just off its historic high around 5,500 on the S&P.  Unemployment at 4.3% is hovering well below its long term average of 5.7%.  GDP growth is doing well at 2.8% YoY.  We’ve had a 15…

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