Month: January 2024

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“Investors prepare for interest rate cuts globally.”  May I take the over on this?

By Pucklore | January 31, 2024 | Comments Off on “Investors prepare for interest rate cuts globally.”  May I take the over on this?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/global-cross-border-money-flows-are-picking-up-from-a-record-low The current unemployment rate is 3.7%.  GDP growth was 4.9% in Q3 2023 and 3.3% in Q4 2023.  Massive government spending and deficits to stimulate the economy in 2024.  I recall my Econ 101 text book saying to lower…

“The recession is receding,” says Former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher. So why would you lower rates?  “Rates are normal now.  This is where things are supposed to be.”

By Pucklore | January 26, 2024 | Comments Off on “The recession is receding,” says Former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher. So why would you lower rates?  “Rates are normal now.  This is where things are supposed to be.”

Mr. Fisher thinks the economy is doing well, and the Fed won’t be politically accommodative to the President during the election year.  Firms aren’t laying off workers, but they’re not hiring much, and workers aren’t aggressively quitting either.  Furthermore, companies…

Co-founder of Palantir Joe Lonsdale says AI will create productivity gains – especially, and more immediately in healthcare billing. 

By Pucklore | January 23, 2024 | Comments Off on Co-founder of Palantir Joe Lonsdale says AI will create productivity gains – especially, and more immediately in healthcare billing. 

Andrew Ross Sorkin asks if AI will just be just a commoditized feature of everything or if it will actually create new value in products.  Joe Lonsdale says it will create productivity. 

World Bank Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose says, “We are expecting interest rates, especially, real interest rates to be elevated for the foreseeable future.”

By Pucklore | January 10, 2024 | Comments Off on World Bank Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose says, “We are expecting interest rates, especially, real interest rates to be elevated for the foreseeable future.”

This is because global inflation will be around 3% – still too high for many central banks.  Dr. Kose also expects more countries in “frontier markets” to default on their debt, as global growth from 2020-2024 is expected to be…

“Plenty of more stimulus back into the economy at a time when they are desperately trying to get prices down,” says Scott Phillips…about Australia.  This could be the “equivalent of 2–3 rate cuts.”

By Pucklore | January 9, 2024 | Comments Off on “Plenty of more stimulus back into the economy at a time when they are desperately trying to get prices down,” says Scott Phillips…about Australia.  This could be the “equivalent of 2–3 rate cuts.”

So interest rate relief in 2024 will be unlikely in Australia.  The United States also has their own stimulus coming through in 2024 of which the GDP growth effects could be more than anticipated, i.e., inflationary.  Likewise, would the Fed…

2024 Predictions: DeSantis Wins, Fed Funds up 50 BPS, 10-Year at 4.75%, S&P up 7%

By Pucklore | January 2, 2024 | Comments Off on 2024 Predictions: DeSantis Wins, Fed Funds up 50 BPS, 10-Year at 4.75%, S&P up 7%

The stock market will once again climb the wall of worry, and the S&P 500 will finish up 7%.  There will be no recession, because the job market is so strong, and AI excitement counters any fear.  Inflation comes down…

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