Month: November 2023

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Ken Griffin says deglobalization will lead to higher inflation, potentially, for decades.  “We didn’t plan for an era with higher nominal and higher real rates when we went on the spending spree that created a $33T deficit…. There is no IMF for America.”

By Pucklore | November 10, 2023 | Comments Off on Ken Griffin says deglobalization will lead to higher inflation, potentially, for decades.  “We didn’t plan for an era with higher nominal and higher real rates when we went on the spending spree that created a $33T deficit…. There is no IMF for America.”

Mr. Griffin says that instead of us saving for a rainy day, “We’re spending, at the government level, like a drunken sailor.”  He thinks the rise in the 10-year is due to the strong economy coupled with large, unsustainable deficits. …

“Inflation is not going down,” says Kevin O’Leary.  It’s north of 3.5% right now, and the Fed may have to raise rates by another 25 to 50 basis points. 

By Pucklore | November 7, 2023 | Comments Off on “Inflation is not going down,” says Kevin O’Leary.  It’s north of 3.5% right now, and the Fed may have to raise rates by another 25 to 50 basis points. 

Mr. O’Leary has a unique vantage into the small business world – of which data is actually current – and thinks America is “downsizing”.  Large purchases in young people’s lives will be substituted by smaller things – smaller houses, autos,…

Former Labor Secretary Seth Harris says, “There is no massive disruptive event out there that is going to cause this economy to get into a jobs recession.”  There is a sustainable and moderate growth in jobs and wages.

By Pucklore | November 5, 2023 | Comments Off on Former Labor Secretary Seth Harris says, “There is no massive disruptive event out there that is going to cause this economy to get into a jobs recession.”  There is a sustainable and moderate growth in jobs and wages.

Nor is there a sign of a recession or a dramatic slowdown.  There is no indication of significant layoffs.  Mr. Harris thinks that the most depressing thing about the economy is the constant recession predictions – when there are none. 

Brian Cornell, CEO of Target: “They’re buying less stuff.”  Consumer discretionary goods spending is noticeably down at Target stores with 7 consecutive quarters of both dollars and units declining.

By Pucklore | November 3, 2023 | Comments Off on Brian Cornell, CEO of Target: “They’re buying less stuff.”  Consumer discretionary goods spending is noticeably down at Target stores with 7 consecutive quarters of both dollars and units declining.

Less apparel, fewer toys and less home items are being bought, so there are some areas in the economy where there is a recession.  This is a reversal of the prior years in which they were chasing demand. Mr. Cornell…

Steve Eisman thinks the most interesting dynamic this earnings season was Visa vs. TransUnion.  The dichotomy was that consumer spending was strong but loan volume collapsed, i.e., big ticket items. 

By Pucklore | November 3, 2023 | Comments Off on Steve Eisman thinks the most interesting dynamic this earnings season was Visa vs. TransUnion.  The dichotomy was that consumer spending was strong but loan volume collapsed, i.e., big ticket items. 

Mr. Eisman doesn’t think the Fed will lower rates next year (unless there is a bad recession) and would avoid buying the 10-year.  He seems to agree with Robert Kaplan that the economy won’t slow down due to the fiscal…

When Jamie Dimon looks over the horizon, he sees sticky inflation.  “I don’t see anything that is future disinflationary.”  Mr. Dimon also thinks that quantitative tightening will eventually “rattle the markets.”

By Pucklore | November 2, 2023 | Comments Off on When Jamie Dimon looks over the horizon, he sees sticky inflation.  “I don’t see anything that is future disinflationary.”  Mr. Dimon also thinks that quantitative tightening will eventually “rattle the markets.”

The Fed will more than likely need to raise rates again.  10-year bond yields should rise.  The size of the deficits, quantitative tightening, and nations selling will add to the supply.  However, he doesn’t think we’ll have a “Volcker Recession”…

“The daily borrowing for the next 90 days… $8.66B a day – a day!”  Next years’ projections are even higher.  “This is driving the yield curve,” says Richard Fisher. Fiscal policy is driving rates higher.

By Pucklore | November 1, 2023 | Comments Off on “The daily borrowing for the next 90 days… $8.66B a day – a day!”  Next years’ projections are even higher.  “This is driving the yield curve,” says Richard Fisher. Fiscal policy is driving rates higher.

Mr. Fisher doesn’t think there is a clearing mechanism for the market when there is so much borrowing.  As long as the fiscal authorities are out of control, we will live in a 5% world.  “They (the Fed) can work…

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