Month: September 2023

Categories

“Look, we are in a cold war.  They’ve been fighting it since 2001,” says Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital. 

By Pucklore | September 29, 2023 | Comments Off on “Look, we are in a cold war.  They’ve been fighting it since 2001,” says Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital. 

Mr. Bass also wonders why we give China all the asymmetries, e.g., we let them broadcast anything in our country, but we can’t in theirs.  China’s banking system is 4X more levered than ours, and 40% of the leverage is…

Rick Rieder tells Steve Liesman that, “This is a pretty extraordinary period of time, because you’ve got an immense amount of cash that’s sitting on the sidelines that just wants to sit in money market funds.  And then you’re getting this immense supply coming to the market.” 

By Pucklore | September 29, 2023 | Comments Off on Rick Rieder tells Steve Liesman that, “This is a pretty extraordinary period of time, because you’ve got an immense amount of cash that’s sitting on the sidelines that just wants to sit in money market funds.  And then you’re getting this immense supply coming to the market.” 

Mr. Rieder then asks how much risk do you really want to take in term premium when the front rates are so high, and the Fed is indicating they’d like to raise more?  This corroborates that narrative of who is…

On the All in Podcast, Chamath Palihapitiya thinks founders should save burn money until 2026, so survive past 25 now.  All four founders come to the realization in this episode of higher-for-longer emblematic of what many other business owners are experiencing.

By Pucklore | September 29, 2023 | Comments Off on On the All in Podcast, Chamath Palihapitiya thinks founders should save burn money until 2026, so survive past 25 now.  All four founders come to the realization in this episode of higher-for-longer emblematic of what many other business owners are experiencing.

The founders also discuss the tightening of risk capital to entrepreneurs, so you need to make due with less.  Additionally, they think consumers will pull back on their wallets.  Jeffrey Sachs also questions who will take on all the new…

Bill Ackman of Pershing Square still thinks yields on the long end of the curve will go up and that structural inflation will be north of 3%.

By Pucklore | September 29, 2023 | Comments Off on Bill Ackman of Pershing Square still thinks yields on the long end of the curve will go up and that structural inflation will be north of 3%.

China selling, Russia selling, Saudi Arabia selling, and the U.S. economy is still doing well.  Again, so who will buy all the new Treasury supply on the longer end? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrDI3QDFh0A&t=1234s

Lisa Abramowicz addresses the 1,000 lb gorilla in the commercial real estate room head on with Jones Lang LaSalle’s Mark Gibson.  She asks, “Do you think that that is an accurate description of the tsunami of potential defaults that could be hanging out there?”

By Pucklore | September 27, 2023 | Comments Off on Lisa Abramowicz addresses the 1,000 lb gorilla in the commercial real estate room head on with Jones Lang LaSalle’s Mark Gibson.  She asks, “Do you think that that is an accurate description of the tsunami of potential defaults that could be hanging out there?”

“What is the next shoe to drop?”  Mr. Gibson’s response is: “I don’t, simply, because CRE like every asset class adjusts to the cost of capital.” Ms. Abramowicz then asks – after pointing out the Wall Street Journal calling it…

Financial historian Jim Grant reiterates that we are in a long-term bear trend for bonds after 40 years.  “Interest rates are unusual if not unique in financial menagerie, because they tend to trend in generational length phases….  It’s been true in this country since the Civil War.”

By Pucklore | September 27, 2023 | Comments Off on Financial historian Jim Grant reiterates that we are in a long-term bear trend for bonds after 40 years.  “Interest rates are unusual if not unique in financial menagerie, because they tend to trend in generational length phases….  It’s been true in this country since the Civil War.”

“Every big move in financial markets… tends to climax in some absurdity, some valuation excess.”  This one ended with negative interest rates to the tune of $15T of bonds.  “So we had 40 years down.  Before that, we had 35…

Jamie Dimon expounds on his earlier potential call of the decade of a 7% 10-year rate.  He is also urging at the front end for, “clients to be prepared for that kind of stress.”  We also need to stop thinking of China as a 10 foot giant.

By Pucklore | September 26, 2023 | Comments Off on Jamie Dimon expounds on his earlier potential call of the decade of a 7% 10-year rate.  He is also urging at the front end for, “clients to be prepared for that kind of stress.”  We also need to stop thinking of China as a 10 foot giant.

Mr. Dimon also thinks the main question with China isn’t the real estate sector but the seriousness of having, “a European democratic nation invaded under the threat of nuclear blackmail….  It’s gonna affect all of our relationships….  And India is…

Will higher rates weed our economic garden? 

By Pucklore | September 25, 2023 | Comments Off on Will higher rates weed our economic garden? 

Fair growth policies encourage responsible financial practices and the proper balance of savings and investment. But beginning in 2015-2016 the real estate market was flooded with easy money, especially, through smaller banks.  This also transferred to the venture capital world…

“We’re still playing catchup, Joe, to the fact that people are earning less than the inflation rate, and now they’re making up for that in spades,” says former Dallas Fed President Fisher.  “You have to look at the employment data.”

By Pucklore | September 20, 2023 | Comments Off on “We’re still playing catchup, Joe, to the fact that people are earning less than the inflation rate, and now they’re making up for that in spades,” says former Dallas Fed President Fisher.  “You have to look at the employment data.”

Only 10% of labor is unionized in the U.S. (7% of it is private sector.)  But small and medium sized businesses are being pressured to raise wages as well, as they are having trouble finding skilled workers.  Consumption demand is…

“What we’re seeing unfolding in real time is nothing short of a tech war between the U.S. and China….  We are going to see a bifurcation of a Chinese led technology world and an American led technology world,” says Palantir advisor Jacob Helberg.

By Pucklore | September 20, 2023 | Comments Off on “What we’re seeing unfolding in real time is nothing short of a tech war between the U.S. and China….  We are going to see a bifurcation of a Chinese led technology world and an American led technology world,” says Palantir advisor Jacob Helberg.

The new 7 nanometer SMIC chip to Huawei may be violating U.S. sanctions.  The Biden Admin. sanctions show the export controls on advanced computing will slow China’s advance but not stop it.  But this is what the sanctions are designed…

Vault