Month: August 2023

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RJ Talks provides more evidence showing mortgage rates to go higher with lack of mortgage backed securities buyers.

By Pucklore | August 11, 2023 | Comments Off on RJ Talks provides more evidence showing mortgage rates to go higher with lack of mortgage backed securities buyers.

In the second part of the video, RJ Talks discusses the rising amount of mortgage backed securities, especially, due to the Fed selling these bonds.  Many funds have been discussing buying these fixed assets, but they have actually become even…

“If that happens, this Fed is not done.” And more rate hikes are on the table says Jim Bianco.

By Pucklore | August 11, 2023 | Comments Off on “If that happens, this Fed is not done.” And more rate hikes are on the table says Jim Bianco.

If we see inflation spike (largely from gasoline) which would take the inflation rate into the high 3s, we would also see one more hike this year with potentially more in 2024.  Mr. Bianco also says that he is still…

Jim Bianco says, “The bank walk never stopped…and if the bank walk is continuing, and there is no growth in bank deposits, which there isn’t, there’s going to be no growth in lending.”

By Pucklore | August 10, 2023 | Comments Off on Jim Bianco says, “The bank walk never stopped…and if the bank walk is continuing, and there is no growth in bank deposits, which there isn’t, there’s going to be no growth in lending.”

In his referenced chart, the spread between what a bank will offer and what the money markets are offering is at 4.5% which is the highest we’ve ever scene.  He says, “this is the bank walk.”  So banks are acting…

Dan Clifton thinks that the Fed will have to step in and help the Treasury out in order to get interest costs lower. “We are at a very significant inflection point.”

By Pucklore | August 9, 2023 | Comments Off on Dan Clifton thinks that the Fed will have to step in and help the Treasury out in order to get interest costs lower. “We are at a very significant inflection point.”

Ms. Evans is perplexed how the public seemed more interested with ballooning debt and deficits in 2011 vs now when interest rates are higher.  Mr. Clifton says that the deficit costs are a,” warning shot that we need to get…

Steve Forbes on whether the recession is coming: “We’re going to have the economic equivalent of walking pneumonia”.

By Pucklore | August 9, 2023 | Comments Off on Steve Forbes on whether the recession is coming: “We’re going to have the economic equivalent of walking pneumonia”.

Mr. Forbes says it won’t be “enough to put you in the hospital, but you’re not going to feel very good about it.” 

Tim Adams reaffirms the China spillover effect from real estate and says we need to prepare for a negative shock.  Total debt is $300 Trillion worldwide or 350% of global GDP.

By Pucklore | August 8, 2023 | Comments Off on Tim Adams reaffirms the China spillover effect from real estate and says we need to prepare for a negative shock.  Total debt is $300 Trillion worldwide or 350% of global GDP.

Mr. Adams says that this debt growth (including $10 Trillion to US Debt over the last 7 years) is not sustainable.  However, in the near term he expects large fiscal deficits to continue until “someday when the markets stop taking…

Jonathan Ferro interviews Gershon Distenfeld and Jim Bianco.  Both seem to agree that inflation is here to stay.  Mr. Bianco says two and maybe three more hikes due to underestimating the Fed.

By Pucklore | August 8, 2023 | Comments Off on Jonathan Ferro interviews Gershon Distenfeld and Jim Bianco.  Both seem to agree that inflation is here to stay.  Mr. Bianco says two and maybe three more hikes due to underestimating the Fed.

Mr. Gershon talks about a secular change in restrictive trade occurring with Mr. Bianco referencing the complete shutdown of the global economy and its re-start from which persistently high inflation (3-4%) will prevail indefinitely.  Mr. Bianco says, “We are not…

Larry Fink says we need above 3% growth to avoid cuts to programs and that our deficits are out of control.  There is $7T in money market funds.  David Faber suggests that the treasury market will need the money.

By Pucklore | August 6, 2023 | Comments Off on Larry Fink says we need above 3% growth to avoid cuts to programs and that our deficits are out of control.  There is $7T in money market funds.  David Faber suggests that the treasury market will need the money.

Mr. Fink says inflation will be stickier (between 3-4%), because the demand for workers will be extraordinary with the IRA and Infrastructure Act.  In the first part, Mr. Fink expounds on the long term health and dynamism of the U.S.…

“We are all dealing with failure right now” says David Friedberg.  And David Sacks says everyone is reforecasting down with startups seeing a recession in their sales. 

By Pucklore | August 5, 2023 | Comments Off on “We are all dealing with failure right now” says David Friedberg.  And David Sacks says everyone is reforecasting down with startups seeing a recession in their sales. 

David Sacks, David Friedberg and Chamath Palihapitiya fire on all cylinders with advice for entrepreneurs.  They discuss a toxic mess with bad board members not regulating bad decisions within many companies and “a lot of failure going on right now”…

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