Month: August 2023

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10-year treasuries just hit a 15 year high.  Is everyone too sanguine about this, asks Kelly Evans?  She and Joe Kernen are flabbergasted that Matt Hornbach is unconcerned by the current rate environment.  Mr. Hornbach says that the Fed is done hiking.

By Pucklore | August 18, 2023 | Comments Off on 10-year treasuries just hit a 15 year high.  Is everyone too sanguine about this, asks Kelly Evans?  She and Joe Kernen are flabbergasted that Matt Hornbach is unconcerned by the current rate environment.  Mr. Hornbach says that the Fed is done hiking.

He states that the time to worry was last year when bond prices were falling. He also thinks that duration risk is lower this year than last year, and the Fed will cut rates next year.  Inflation will come down…

“If you don’t like the numbers, you change them – or stop publishing them,” says Andrew Ross Sorkin about Chinese economic numbers.  Beijing will stop publishing figures for youth unemployment in China, because it’s so bad.

By Pucklore | August 17, 2023 | Comments Off on “If you don’t like the numbers, you change them – or stop publishing them,” says Andrew Ross Sorkin about Chinese economic numbers.  Beijing will stop publishing figures for youth unemployment in China, because it’s so bad.

Anna Ashton from Eurasia group has heard that youth unemployment numbers could be worse than the last reported rate by Beijing of over 21%.  It could actually be as high as 40%.  She says some problems in China could be…

We are seeing record credit card debt, the anti-inflationary drivers of growth are reversing and China is slowing down, says Scott Sperling of THL.

By Pucklore | August 17, 2023 | Comments Off on We are seeing record credit card debt, the anti-inflationary drivers of growth are reversing and China is slowing down, says Scott Sperling of THL.

Mr. Sperling believes that inflation will stay between 3-5% due to energy prices and wage pressures.

If you helicopter drop more money than we spent in World War 2, and unit labor costs continue to rise without productivity gains, you will get higher inflation and higher for longer from the Fed, says Barry Bannister of Stifel.

By Pucklore | August 15, 2023 | Comments Off on If you helicopter drop more money than we spent in World War 2, and unit labor costs continue to rise without productivity gains, you will get higher inflation and higher for longer from the Fed, says Barry Bannister of Stifel.

Joe Kernen wonders if we will have to pay the piper after all the Keynesian stimulus, which the younger leaders may not understand.  Mr. Bannister does not think we will reach inflation adjusted highs again in the S&P 500 for…

Rick Rieder of Blackrock says we are in a “polyurethane” economy of resiliency, and it’s not as sensitive to interest rates as it used to be. 

By Pucklore | August 14, 2023 | Comments Off on Rick Rieder of Blackrock says we are in a “polyurethane” economy of resiliency, and it’s not as sensitive to interest rates as it used to be. 

We are a 70% consumption and 70% services economy which is more resilient to recession.  Additionally, people have locked in mortgages, and the big spenders in the economy – tech- are not big borrowers.   So Mr. Rieder thinks that in…

The market isn’t pricing in the next shoe to drop – credit.  Anne Walsh of Guggenheim says don’t fight the Fed.

By Pucklore | August 14, 2023 | Comments Off on The market isn’t pricing in the next shoe to drop – credit.  Anne Walsh of Guggenheim says don’t fight the Fed.

She thinks that recession is out of everyone’s mind, but that’s a mistake, and it should happen after a reacceleration of inflation.

Steve Eisman says the regional banks could have problems 6, 9 or 12 months from now because of the lag time for bad CRE to filter through the system.

By Pucklore | August 13, 2023 | Comments Off on Steve Eisman says the regional banks could have problems 6, 9 or 12 months from now because of the lag time for bad CRE to filter through the system.

Warren Buffett also says the only thing they aren’t sure of is whether to buy 3 month or 6 month T-Bills.  Could the next round of the bank problems be around six months away?  That would take us into early…

We are in the middle of the 4th Turning which could last until the early 2030s.  Adam Taggart has the privilege of interviewing the historian Neil Howe.

By Pucklore | August 12, 2023 | Comments Off on We are in the middle of the 4th Turning which could last until the early 2030s.  Adam Taggart has the privilege of interviewing the historian Neil Howe.

Mr. Howe discusses his generational theory and new book.  History isn’t linear, so don’t extrapolate the current trends.  It cycles every saeculum or approximately 100 years.  He thinks that the current saeculum is expanding due to the longevity of life. …

“I do continue to think that yields on bonds will go higher,” says Jim Bianco. 

By Pucklore | August 12, 2023 | Comments Off on “I do continue to think that yields on bonds will go higher,” says Jim Bianco. 

Why aren’t inflows to Treasuries affecting yields?  Because most of the inflows going into T-Bills are on the short end of the yield curve which the Fed is keeping high.  The 10-year yield ought to move higher from here.

Brandon from Car Questions Answered says repossessions are spiking, and used car prices will plummet.  “This is the tip of the iceberg.”

By Pucklore | August 11, 2023 | Comments Off on Brandon from Car Questions Answered says repossessions are spiking, and used car prices will plummet.  “This is the tip of the iceberg.”

He says this will be the biggest crisis in the car market ever.  Lenders such as Wells Fargo were lending up to 180% of the value of the vehicle.  Banks are repossessing cars at a record rate and quickly sending…

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